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Edwards Edges Clinton in Volatile Iowa Polling

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For the first time in the five polls conducted monthly by American Research Group (ARG) since December 2006, John Edwards is now polling ahead of Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa.

Edwards received 27 percent of support in the poll, conducted April 27-30, with Clinton coming in at 23 percent. Clinton dropped 11 points since a mid-March ARG poll; Edwards, meanwhile dropped 6 points from his 33 percent level of support in March. More Iowans are now undecided about which candidate they support (16 percent) than in any of the previous ARG polls, including twice as many undecided likely voters as compared to 5 months ago (just 8 percent in December 2006).

Senator Clinton held double digit leads over Edwards in December (11 points) and late January (17 points), but Edwards has since closed the gap: down 4 points in February, 1 point in March, and now up 4 points in the new survey.

Iowa is considered to be a must-win state for Edwards. The former Senator has campaigned heavily in the Hawkeye State since the 2004 election, and will need the momentum (and the positive press coverage that accompanies such a victory) to compete with the well-funded Clinton (and once buzz-worthy Barack Obama) heading into New Hampshire and the big multi-state primary days that take place a few weeks later.

Obama came in third in the new ARG poll at 19 percent. The two candidates who enjoyed the biggest surge of support, however, were in the "second tier" of candidates. Joe Biden received the support of 6 percent of likely Democratic caucus voters, after polling at just 2 percent in each of the previous four ARG surveys. Bill Richardson likewise polled in fifth place at 5 percent, after receiving just 1 percent in the four previous polls.

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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