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Edwards Emerges Giuliani's Strongest Opponent

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Despite running third behind Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in every national poll to become the Democratic presidential nominee, John Edwards has emerged as the only candidate poised thus far to defeat leading GOP contender, Rudy Giuliani.

Earlier this week, SurveyUSA released polls in 11 states of head-to-head candidate matchups between Giuliani and each of these three Democratic Party frontrunners. The eleven states surveyed in mid-April included 6 that went to George W. Bush in 2004 (Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia) and 5 that were carried by John Kerry (California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Wisconsin).

John Edwards leads Giuliani in an early hypothetical matchup in 9 of these 11 states—only trailing the former New York City mayor in his home state of New York (by just 5 points) and New Mexico (by 3 points, within the margin of error). Edwards' average advantage over Giuliani in the 9 other states is 7 points, including double digit leads in the battleground states of Iowa (+10) and Wisconsin (+14). Edwards' lead was within the margin of error in only two of these states: Massachusetts (+1) and Kentucky (+3).

Hillary Clinton, however, has fallen behind Giuliani in 6 of the 11 states, trailing in Virginia (-5) and 5 states within the margin of error: Wisconsin (-1), Kentucky (-2), New Mexico (-2), Iowa (-3), and Missouri (-3). Clinton has opened up double digit leads in California (+12), Massachusetts (+12), and the battle for New York (+11).

Barack Obama emerges as the least competitive of the "Big 3"—leading Giuliani in only 2 states: Iowa (+5) and California (+1, within the margin of error). Obama trails Giuliani by an average of 9 points in the remaining 9 states, with only one within the margin of error (Wisconsin, by 2 points). Obama is looking up at double-digit deficits in four key states that all went Republican in the 2004 presidential race: Kentucky (-16), Virginia (-15), Ohio (-11), and New Mexico (-10).

To this point, Edwards clearly has the advantage in terms of "electability" versus the powerhouse Giuliani. Whether or not the Democratic base takes this into consideration when picking their nominee next year is an open question.

Previous post: McCain Opens Up First Lead Over Giuliani in Iowa
Next post: Who Is Driving Upper Midwest Support of Edwards?

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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