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McCain Opens Up First Lead Over Giuliani in Iowa

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Despite trailing Rudy Giuliani in most national polls by double digits, Arizona Senator and Republican presidential candidate John McCain has opened up his first lead over the former New York City mayor in the Hawkeye State, 26 to 19 percent (American Research Group, April 27-30). Two months ago, the ARG poll had Giuliani leading 31-23, with McCain closing the gap at 29-29 in mid-March.

McCain's recent surge in Iowa parallels the strong early support he is receiving in two other influential primary states: New Hampshire and South Carolina. Late-April ARG polling shows McCain leading Giuliani by 12 points in New Hampshire (Giuliani also trails Mitt Romney by 7 points) and by 13 points in South Carolina.

These polls give a much needed boost to McCain supporters, who find their candidate trailing Giuliani nationally by 11 points in an NBC / WSJ poll (April 20-23), 11 points in a Pew poll (April 18-22), and 19 points in a Fox News poll (April 17-18).

The hope, for McCain, is that a clean sweep of the high-profile Iowa Caucus (January 14, 2008) and early primaries in New Hampshire (January 22, 2008) and South Carolina (February 2, 2008) will propel him into a much stronger finish on "Mega-Tuesday" (February 5, 2008), when at least 15 states will hold elections for over 800 Republican delegates, including Giuliani-friendly (and delegate rich) states like New York, New Jersey, and California.

In Iowa, Mitt Romney earned 14 percent of the support in the ARG poll of likely Republican caucus voters—his highest level of support to date. Not-yet-official candidate Fred Thompson was the only other Republican in double digits, with 13 percent.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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