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More Iowa Election Polling: Tight at the Top, Dems Leading GOP

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A new KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll of likely Iowa voters finds John McCain and Hillary Clinton edging out their respective party rivals, within the survey's margin of error.

The survey, conducted May 14-16 (overlapping the May 14-15 field dates of the Zogby poll discussed at Smart Politics yesterday), finds McCain (18 percent), Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and Mitt Romney (16 percent) in a dead heat for the Republican nod in Iowa. Giuliani and McCain each lost 9 points since the last KCCI-TV poll conducted in December 2006, while Romney has gained 7 points. This Romney surge into a virtual tie was also manifested in the Zogby poll.

Clinton (28 percent) edges John Edwards (26 percent) and Barack Obama (22 percent) on the Democratic side. Bill Richardson (7 percent) appears to be the only other Democrat gaining traction in the Hawkeye state.

Iowa Republicans seem to be having a greater difficulty in settling on a candidate at this early stage than do Iowa Democrats. Twenty-two percent of likely GOP caucus voters were unsure for which candidate they would vote in both the KCCI-TV and Zogby polls. On the Democratic side, just 11 percent were undecided in the KCCI-TV poll, and 13 percent in the Zogby poll.

The other interesting finding from the KCCI-TV poll is that nearly all of the leading Democratic candidates have the edge in head-to-head matchups against the leading Republican candidates—with the exception of Hillary Clinton.

Edwards leads Giuliani (41 - 37), McCain (41—38), Romney (44—34), and not-yet-officially declared candidate Fred Thompson (44—29).

Obama also leads Giuliani (44—37), McCain (43—38), Romney (45—34), and Thompson (44—27).

Clinton has narrower leads over Romney (41—35) and Thompson (39—30), is tied with Giuliani (38—38), and trails McCain within the margin of error (39—40).

Previous post: Romney, Edwards Lead in Latest Zogby Iowa Poll
Next post: And A Third Iowa Poll: Romney Breaks Out

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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