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More Iowa Election Polling: Tight at the Top, Dems Leading GOP

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A new KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll of likely Iowa voters finds John McCain and Hillary Clinton edging out their respective party rivals, within the survey's margin of error.

The survey, conducted May 14-16 (overlapping the May 14-15 field dates of the Zogby poll discussed at Smart Politics yesterday), finds McCain (18 percent), Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and Mitt Romney (16 percent) in a dead heat for the Republican nod in Iowa. Giuliani and McCain each lost 9 points since the last KCCI-TV poll conducted in December 2006, while Romney has gained 7 points. This Romney surge into a virtual tie was also manifested in the Zogby poll.

Clinton (28 percent) edges John Edwards (26 percent) and Barack Obama (22 percent) on the Democratic side. Bill Richardson (7 percent) appears to be the only other Democrat gaining traction in the Hawkeye state.

Iowa Republicans seem to be having a greater difficulty in settling on a candidate at this early stage than do Iowa Democrats. Twenty-two percent of likely GOP caucus voters were unsure for which candidate they would vote in both the KCCI-TV and Zogby polls. On the Democratic side, just 11 percent were undecided in the KCCI-TV poll, and 13 percent in the Zogby poll.

The other interesting finding from the KCCI-TV poll is that nearly all of the leading Democratic candidates have the edge in head-to-head matchups against the leading Republican candidates—with the exception of Hillary Clinton.

Edwards leads Giuliani (41 - 37), McCain (41—38), Romney (44—34), and not-yet-officially declared candidate Fred Thompson (44—29).

Obama also leads Giuliani (44—37), McCain (43—38), Romney (45—34), and Thompson (44—27).

Clinton has narrower leads over Romney (41—35) and Thompson (39—30), is tied with Giuliani (38—38), and trails McCain within the margin of error (39—40).

Previous post: Romney, Edwards Lead in Latest Zogby Iowa Poll
Next post: And A Third Iowa Poll: Romney Breaks Out

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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