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More Iowa Election Polling: Tight at the Top, Dems Leading GOP

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A new KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll of likely Iowa voters finds John McCain and Hillary Clinton edging out their respective party rivals, within the survey's margin of error.

The survey, conducted May 14-16 (overlapping the May 14-15 field dates of the Zogby poll discussed at Smart Politics yesterday), finds McCain (18 percent), Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and Mitt Romney (16 percent) in a dead heat for the Republican nod in Iowa. Giuliani and McCain each lost 9 points since the last KCCI-TV poll conducted in December 2006, while Romney has gained 7 points. This Romney surge into a virtual tie was also manifested in the Zogby poll.

Clinton (28 percent) edges John Edwards (26 percent) and Barack Obama (22 percent) on the Democratic side. Bill Richardson (7 percent) appears to be the only other Democrat gaining traction in the Hawkeye state.

Iowa Republicans seem to be having a greater difficulty in settling on a candidate at this early stage than do Iowa Democrats. Twenty-two percent of likely GOP caucus voters were unsure for which candidate they would vote in both the KCCI-TV and Zogby polls. On the Democratic side, just 11 percent were undecided in the KCCI-TV poll, and 13 percent in the Zogby poll.

The other interesting finding from the KCCI-TV poll is that nearly all of the leading Democratic candidates have the edge in head-to-head matchups against the leading Republican candidates—with the exception of Hillary Clinton.

Edwards leads Giuliani (41 - 37), McCain (41—38), Romney (44—34), and not-yet-officially declared candidate Fred Thompson (44—29).

Obama also leads Giuliani (44—37), McCain (43—38), Romney (45—34), and Thompson (44—27).

Clinton has narrower leads over Romney (41—35) and Thompson (39—30), is tied with Giuliani (38—38), and trails McCain within the margin of error (39—40).

Previous post: Romney, Edwards Lead in Latest Zogby Iowa Poll
Next post: And A Third Iowa Poll: Romney Breaks Out

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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