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Romney, Edwards Lead in Latest Zogby Iowa Poll

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The latest Zogby survey of likely Iowa caucus voters finds two candidates who are running third (at best) in national polls each narrowly leading a tight pack of candidates in their respective party's race in the Hawkeye State.

In a big surge, Mitt Romney—who has fared favorably in the GOP debates thus far—garnered 19 percent of the support of likely Republican caucus voters, eclipsing Rudy Giuliani (18 percent) and John McCain (18 percent) - a lead well within the survey's margin of error. Romney trails Giuliani and McCain in all national polls.

Romney's numbers have virtually doubled in each of the three Zogby polls from mid-January (5 percent) to late March (11 percent) to mid-May (19 percent). McCain's support has remained steady—holding between 17 and 19 percent the Zogby polls, while Giuliani dropped 7 points in May from his 25 percent peak in March. Fred Thompson, who has not yet announced his candidacy, was not included in the Zogby poll. Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson was a distant fourth at 4 percent.

John Edwards (26 percent) continues to lead the pack on the Democratic side of the ticket for the fourth consecutive Zogby poll. His two-point lead over Hillary Clinton (24 percent) is within the survey's margin of error. Edwards has maintained support between 24 and 27 percent in all four Zogby polls since January. Barack Obama garnered 22 percent in the new Zogby poll, with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson in fourth at 6 percent. Edwards trails both Clinton and Obama in all national polls.

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    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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