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Romney, Edwards Lead in Latest Zogby Iowa Poll

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The latest Zogby survey of likely Iowa caucus voters finds two candidates who are running third (at best) in national polls each narrowly leading a tight pack of candidates in their respective party's race in the Hawkeye State.

In a big surge, Mitt Romney—who has fared favorably in the GOP debates thus far—garnered 19 percent of the support of likely Republican caucus voters, eclipsing Rudy Giuliani (18 percent) and John McCain (18 percent) - a lead well within the survey's margin of error. Romney trails Giuliani and McCain in all national polls.

Romney's numbers have virtually doubled in each of the three Zogby polls from mid-January (5 percent) to late March (11 percent) to mid-May (19 percent). McCain's support has remained steady—holding between 17 and 19 percent the Zogby polls, while Giuliani dropped 7 points in May from his 25 percent peak in March. Fred Thompson, who has not yet announced his candidacy, was not included in the Zogby poll. Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson was a distant fourth at 4 percent.

John Edwards (26 percent) continues to lead the pack on the Democratic side of the ticket for the fourth consecutive Zogby poll. His two-point lead over Hillary Clinton (24 percent) is within the survey's margin of error. Edwards has maintained support between 24 and 27 percent in all four Zogby polls since January. Barack Obama garnered 22 percent in the new Zogby poll, with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson in fourth at 6 percent. Edwards trails both Clinton and Obama in all national polls.

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    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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