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Who Is Driving Upper Midwest Support of Edwards?

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As discussed in the May 4th Smart Politics entry, John Edwards is faring much better than Hillary Clinton in head-to-head matchups against GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani across the nation, and in the Upper Midwest in particular (as measured by recent American Research Group polling). Edwards holds leads against Giuliani of 14 points in Iowa, 10 points in Wisconsin, and 8 points in Iowa. Clinton, meanwhile, is basically in a dead heat with Giuliani—slightly behind in Iowa (-3 points) and Wisconsin (-1 point), and slightly ahead in Minnesota (+3 points).

An analysis of ARG poll crosstabs finds Edwards has large advantages over Clinton among several key groups. In terms of party identification, Edwards and Clinton basically pick up the same amount of support among self-identified Democrats, but Edwards is able to pry away greater numbers of Republicans (+6) and Independents (+10) than is Clinton in all three states when paired against the former NYC mayor.

In Wisconsin, Edwards received the nod of 48 percent of independents, compared to 34 percent for Clinton when facing Giuliani. In Iowa, Edwards received the support of 57 percent of self-identified independents, while Clinton received just 41 percent.

Additionally, Republicans in Minnesota (20 percent), Iowa (18 percent) and Wisconsin (17 percent) all were more likely to back Edwards rather than Clinton (13 percent, 8 percent, and 12 percent respectively) when matched up against Giuliani.

Not surprisingly, men were also much more likely to back Edwards than Clinton, especially in Iowa (+13) and Wisconsin (+8). Females lent their support equally to both candidates in Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Edwards picking up an extra 6 points (60 percent) of likely female voters in Iowa as compared to Clinton (54 percent).

Edwards also held advantages over Clinton among all age groups: 18-34, 35-54, and 55+ year olds. His advantage was especially strong among the 35-54 year olds, from whom Edwards picked up 15 more points than Clinton in Wisconsin, 10 more points in Iowa, and 4 more points in Minnesota.

Of course, when Democratic primary polls are released in each of these three states, one can determine if these demographics hold across the Upper Midwest without the introduction of the Giuliani variable. Edwards is currently leading Clinton in the latest ARG Iowa poll, by a 27 to 23 margin.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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