Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Who Is Driving Upper Midwest Support of Edwards?

Bookmark and Share

As discussed in the May 4th Smart Politics entry, John Edwards is faring much better than Hillary Clinton in head-to-head matchups against GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani across the nation, and in the Upper Midwest in particular (as measured by recent American Research Group polling). Edwards holds leads against Giuliani of 14 points in Iowa, 10 points in Wisconsin, and 8 points in Iowa. Clinton, meanwhile, is basically in a dead heat with Giuliani—slightly behind in Iowa (-3 points) and Wisconsin (-1 point), and slightly ahead in Minnesota (+3 points).

An analysis of ARG poll crosstabs finds Edwards has large advantages over Clinton among several key groups. In terms of party identification, Edwards and Clinton basically pick up the same amount of support among self-identified Democrats, but Edwards is able to pry away greater numbers of Republicans (+6) and Independents (+10) than is Clinton in all three states when paired against the former NYC mayor.

In Wisconsin, Edwards received the nod of 48 percent of independents, compared to 34 percent for Clinton when facing Giuliani. In Iowa, Edwards received the support of 57 percent of self-identified independents, while Clinton received just 41 percent.

Additionally, Republicans in Minnesota (20 percent), Iowa (18 percent) and Wisconsin (17 percent) all were more likely to back Edwards rather than Clinton (13 percent, 8 percent, and 12 percent respectively) when matched up against Giuliani.

Not surprisingly, men were also much more likely to back Edwards than Clinton, especially in Iowa (+13) and Wisconsin (+8). Females lent their support equally to both candidates in Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Edwards picking up an extra 6 points (60 percent) of likely female voters in Iowa as compared to Clinton (54 percent).

Edwards also held advantages over Clinton among all age groups: 18-34, 35-54, and 55+ year olds. His advantage was especially strong among the 35-54 year olds, from whom Edwards picked up 15 more points than Clinton in Wisconsin, 10 more points in Iowa, and 4 more points in Minnesota.

Of course, when Democratic primary polls are released in each of these three states, one can determine if these demographics hold across the Upper Midwest without the introduction of the Giuliani variable. Edwards is currently leading Clinton in the latest ARG Iowa poll, by a 27 to 23 margin.

Previous post: Edwards Emerges Giuliani's Strongest Opponent
Next post: Pawlenty Wins Minor Battle in Fight Against Illegal Immigration

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting