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Who Is Driving Upper Midwest Support of Edwards?

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As discussed in the May 4th Smart Politics entry, John Edwards is faring much better than Hillary Clinton in head-to-head matchups against GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani across the nation, and in the Upper Midwest in particular (as measured by recent American Research Group polling). Edwards holds leads against Giuliani of 14 points in Iowa, 10 points in Wisconsin, and 8 points in Iowa. Clinton, meanwhile, is basically in a dead heat with Giuliani—slightly behind in Iowa (-3 points) and Wisconsin (-1 point), and slightly ahead in Minnesota (+3 points).

An analysis of ARG poll crosstabs finds Edwards has large advantages over Clinton among several key groups. In terms of party identification, Edwards and Clinton basically pick up the same amount of support among self-identified Democrats, but Edwards is able to pry away greater numbers of Republicans (+6) and Independents (+10) than is Clinton in all three states when paired against the former NYC mayor.

In Wisconsin, Edwards received the nod of 48 percent of independents, compared to 34 percent for Clinton when facing Giuliani. In Iowa, Edwards received the support of 57 percent of self-identified independents, while Clinton received just 41 percent.

Additionally, Republicans in Minnesota (20 percent), Iowa (18 percent) and Wisconsin (17 percent) all were more likely to back Edwards rather than Clinton (13 percent, 8 percent, and 12 percent respectively) when matched up against Giuliani.

Not surprisingly, men were also much more likely to back Edwards than Clinton, especially in Iowa (+13) and Wisconsin (+8). Females lent their support equally to both candidates in Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Edwards picking up an extra 6 points (60 percent) of likely female voters in Iowa as compared to Clinton (54 percent).

Edwards also held advantages over Clinton among all age groups: 18-34, 35-54, and 55+ year olds. His advantage was especially strong among the 35-54 year olds, from whom Edwards picked up 15 more points than Clinton in Wisconsin, 10 more points in Iowa, and 4 more points in Minnesota.

Of course, when Democratic primary polls are released in each of these three states, one can determine if these demographics hold across the Upper Midwest without the introduction of the Giuliani variable. Edwards is currently leading Clinton in the latest ARG Iowa poll, by a 27 to 23 margin.

Previous post: Edwards Emerges Giuliani's Strongest Opponent
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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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