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Edwards and Romney Maintain Advantage in Iowa

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Underdogs John Edwards and Mitt Romney continue to lead their respective Republican and Democratic caucus matchups, according to a brand new poll by KCCI-TV / Research 2000.

The poll of 400 likely Iowa Democratic caucus voters, conducted July 23-25, finds John Edwards with a 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton, at 27—22 percent. Clinton, who is leading her Democratic competitors in every national poll, and in almost every state poll, previously had a 28—26 percent lead over Edwards in a KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll conducted in mid-May. While Edwards has been leading in Iowa in many other polls, this is his first outright lead measured by KCCI-TV / Research 2000.

Barack Obama received the third most support, at 16 percent—down from 22 percent in May. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has seen his stock rising: from 1 percent in December 2006, to 7 percent in May, to 11 percent in the July survey. Joe Biden (3 percent), Chris Dodd (2 percent), Dennis Kucinich (2%), and Mike Gravel (1 percent) round out the Democratic field. Sixteen percent of likely Democratic caucus voters are undecided—up from 11 percent in December and May.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney—who nationally is polling in third or fourth (when Fred Thompson is listed as a candidate)—continues his surge in support among Iowans. Romney's measured support has risen from 9 percent in December to 16 percent in May to 25 percent in the new KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll. Romney now leads outside the margin of error in all major public opinion surveys conducted since June (including American Research Group and Mason-Dixon).

Fred Thompson received 14 percent in the new poll, up from 9 percent in May. Rudy Giuliani's measured support continues to fall (from 26 in December to 17 in May to 13 percent in July) as did John McCain's (from 27 to 18 to 10 percent).

Possible candidate Newt Gingrich received 6 percent, followed by Tom Tancredo (2 percent), Tommy Thompson (2 percent), Mike Huckabee (2 percent), Sam Brownback (2 percent), and Duncan Hunter (1 percent). Ron Paul did not receive a measurable amount of support.

For the third straight poll nearly a quarter (22 percent) of likely Republican caucus voters were not sure for whom they would vote.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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