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Edwards and Romney Maintain Advantage in Iowa

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Underdogs John Edwards and Mitt Romney continue to lead their respective Republican and Democratic caucus matchups, according to a brand new poll by KCCI-TV / Research 2000.

The poll of 400 likely Iowa Democratic caucus voters, conducted July 23-25, finds John Edwards with a 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton, at 27—22 percent. Clinton, who is leading her Democratic competitors in every national poll, and in almost every state poll, previously had a 28—26 percent lead over Edwards in a KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll conducted in mid-May. While Edwards has been leading in Iowa in many other polls, this is his first outright lead measured by KCCI-TV / Research 2000.

Barack Obama received the third most support, at 16 percent—down from 22 percent in May. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has seen his stock rising: from 1 percent in December 2006, to 7 percent in May, to 11 percent in the July survey. Joe Biden (3 percent), Chris Dodd (2 percent), Dennis Kucinich (2%), and Mike Gravel (1 percent) round out the Democratic field. Sixteen percent of likely Democratic caucus voters are undecided—up from 11 percent in December and May.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney—who nationally is polling in third or fourth (when Fred Thompson is listed as a candidate)—continues his surge in support among Iowans. Romney's measured support has risen from 9 percent in December to 16 percent in May to 25 percent in the new KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll. Romney now leads outside the margin of error in all major public opinion surveys conducted since June (including American Research Group and Mason-Dixon).

Fred Thompson received 14 percent in the new poll, up from 9 percent in May. Rudy Giuliani's measured support continues to fall (from 26 in December to 17 in May to 13 percent in July) as did John McCain's (from 27 to 18 to 10 percent).

Possible candidate Newt Gingrich received 6 percent, followed by Tom Tancredo (2 percent), Tommy Thompson (2 percent), Mike Huckabee (2 percent), Sam Brownback (2 percent), and Duncan Hunter (1 percent). Ron Paul did not receive a measurable amount of support.

For the third straight poll nearly a quarter (22 percent) of likely Republican caucus voters were not sure for whom they would vote.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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