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New ARG Iowa Poll Finds Rudy & Hillary On Top

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Less than a week after the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll found the leads of John Edwards and Mitt Romney growing in their respective party presidential bids, the eighth in a series of monthly American Research Group (ARG) polls finds Hillary Clinton with nearly a double digit lead, and Giuliani and Romney in a dead heat.

Clinton received 30 percent of the measured support in the ARG poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus voters, surveyed July 26-30. ARG has measured Clinton's support at or above 30 percent in seven of its eight polls since December 2006. John Edwards registered at 21 percent—he has only eclipsed the 30 percent mark once in ARG polling (March 2007).

The other big story coming out of this new poll on the Democratic side of the ticket is New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's showing at 13 percent—just 2 points below Barack Obama. Richardson's support had never been measured in double-digits by ARG previously, and more than doubles his June 2007 showing (5 percent).

The Republican side of the ticket is also in flux. Rudy Giuliani (22 percent) and Mitt Romney (21 percent) swap positions compared to June's ARG survey, with Romney falling 4 points and Giuliani rising 4 points.

John McCain appears to have stopped the bleeding for the moment. After falling in three straight ARG polls—from 29 percent in March to 26 percent in April to 25 percent in May to 13 percent in June—McCain gained 4 points in July, coming in third at 17 percent. Fred Thompson registered in fourth at 13 percent.

Expect a lot more movement among the Democrats and Republicans in the coming months. Overall 15 percent of likely Democratic and Republican caucus voters were undecided as to which candidate they would support—the second highest level of undecided likely voters for each party in ARG's eight months of polling.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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