Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


New ARG Iowa Poll Finds Rudy & Hillary On Top

Bookmark and Share

Less than a week after the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll found the leads of John Edwards and Mitt Romney growing in their respective party presidential bids, the eighth in a series of monthly American Research Group (ARG) polls finds Hillary Clinton with nearly a double digit lead, and Giuliani and Romney in a dead heat.

Clinton received 30 percent of the measured support in the ARG poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus voters, surveyed July 26-30. ARG has measured Clinton's support at or above 30 percent in seven of its eight polls since December 2006. John Edwards registered at 21 percent—he has only eclipsed the 30 percent mark once in ARG polling (March 2007).

The other big story coming out of this new poll on the Democratic side of the ticket is New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's showing at 13 percent—just 2 points below Barack Obama. Richardson's support had never been measured in double-digits by ARG previously, and more than doubles his June 2007 showing (5 percent).

The Republican side of the ticket is also in flux. Rudy Giuliani (22 percent) and Mitt Romney (21 percent) swap positions compared to June's ARG survey, with Romney falling 4 points and Giuliani rising 4 points.

John McCain appears to have stopped the bleeding for the moment. After falling in three straight ARG polls—from 29 percent in March to 26 percent in April to 25 percent in May to 13 percent in June—McCain gained 4 points in July, coming in third at 17 percent. Fred Thompson registered in fourth at 13 percent.

Expect a lot more movement among the Democrats and Republicans in the coming months. Overall 15 percent of likely Democratic and Republican caucus voters were undecided as to which candidate they would support—the second highest level of undecided likely voters for each party in ARG's eight months of polling.

Previous post: Tancredo Yet to Effectively Leverage Immigration Issue In Iowa
Next post: Coleman's Lead Shrinks Over DFL-ers in New SurveyUSA Poll

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

Does My Key Still Work?

Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting