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New ARG Iowa Poll Finds Rudy & Hillary On Top

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Less than a week after the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll found the leads of John Edwards and Mitt Romney growing in their respective party presidential bids, the eighth in a series of monthly American Research Group (ARG) polls finds Hillary Clinton with nearly a double digit lead, and Giuliani and Romney in a dead heat.

Clinton received 30 percent of the measured support in the ARG poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus voters, surveyed July 26-30. ARG has measured Clinton's support at or above 30 percent in seven of its eight polls since December 2006. John Edwards registered at 21 percent—he has only eclipsed the 30 percent mark once in ARG polling (March 2007).

The other big story coming out of this new poll on the Democratic side of the ticket is New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's showing at 13 percent—just 2 points below Barack Obama. Richardson's support had never been measured in double-digits by ARG previously, and more than doubles his June 2007 showing (5 percent).

The Republican side of the ticket is also in flux. Rudy Giuliani (22 percent) and Mitt Romney (21 percent) swap positions compared to June's ARG survey, with Romney falling 4 points and Giuliani rising 4 points.

John McCain appears to have stopped the bleeding for the moment. After falling in three straight ARG polls—from 29 percent in March to 26 percent in April to 25 percent in May to 13 percent in June—McCain gained 4 points in July, coming in third at 17 percent. Fred Thompson registered in fourth at 13 percent.

Expect a lot more movement among the Democrats and Republicans in the coming months. Overall 15 percent of likely Democratic and Republican caucus voters were undecided as to which candidate they would support—the second highest level of undecided likely voters for each party in ARG's eight months of polling.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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