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Romney Again Leads GOP Iowa Caucus Hopefuls in New Poll

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Mitt Romney has solidified himself as the leader of the pack on the GOP side of the equation in the quest for Iowa caucus voters, as demonstrated by the latest monthly poll by American Research Group (ARG). Romney has the support of 25 percent of likely Republican caucus voters in the ARG survey conducted June 26-30—seven points more than Rudy Giuliani (18 percent) who has hit his lowest level of measured support in the seven polls conducted by ARG since December 2006.

Romney now leads in almost every major poll taken in Iowa since May including the Iowa Poll (Des Moines Register), Zogby, and Mason-Dixon. In the ARG poll, Romney's support has increased from 8 percent in February, to 10 percent in March, to 14 percent in April, to 16 percent in May, to 25 percent in late June. Romney's strategy to run television ads this early in the campaign in Upper Midwestern states like Iowa and Minnesota appears to be paying dividends.

Likely candidate Fred Thompson has been listed as a candidate in the ARG poll since March 2007, and now garners 14 percent of the support of likely GOP voters. John McCain comes in fourth at 13 percent—his lowest level in the seven months of ARG polling as well.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, who vows he must win the upcoming GOP Iowa Straw Poll to remain a serious presidential candidate, received 3 percent—tied for sixth with Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (both trailed non-candidate Newt Gingrich at 5 percent).

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3 Comments


  • Where was Ron Paul in the poll?


  • Where was Ron Paul in the poll?

  • Paul received 1 percent - his first registered level of support in ARG's six surveys in 2007.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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