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Romney Again Leads GOP Iowa Caucus Hopefuls in New Poll

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Mitt Romney has solidified himself as the leader of the pack on the GOP side of the equation in the quest for Iowa caucus voters, as demonstrated by the latest monthly poll by American Research Group (ARG). Romney has the support of 25 percent of likely Republican caucus voters in the ARG survey conducted June 26-30—seven points more than Rudy Giuliani (18 percent) who has hit his lowest level of measured support in the seven polls conducted by ARG since December 2006.

Romney now leads in almost every major poll taken in Iowa since May including the Iowa Poll (Des Moines Register), Zogby, and Mason-Dixon. In the ARG poll, Romney's support has increased from 8 percent in February, to 10 percent in March, to 14 percent in April, to 16 percent in May, to 25 percent in late June. Romney's strategy to run television ads this early in the campaign in Upper Midwestern states like Iowa and Minnesota appears to be paying dividends.

Likely candidate Fred Thompson has been listed as a candidate in the ARG poll since March 2007, and now garners 14 percent of the support of likely GOP voters. John McCain comes in fourth at 13 percent—his lowest level in the seven months of ARG polling as well.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, who vows he must win the upcoming GOP Iowa Straw Poll to remain a serious presidential candidate, received 3 percent—tied for sixth with Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (both trailed non-candidate Newt Gingrich at 5 percent).

Previous post: The 'Nays' Have It: Upper Midwest Senate Delegation & Full Body Vote Against Immigration Bill
Next post: Clinton-Edwards Still in Dead Heat in Iowa

3 Comments


  • Where was Ron Paul in the poll?


  • Where was Ron Paul in the poll?

  • Paul received 1 percent - his first registered level of support in ARG's six surveys in 2007.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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