Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Clinton Not Gaining Ground In Wisconsin

Bookmark and Share

Despite surging to large double-digit leads in national Democratic presidential nomination polls, Hillary Clinton's support in the Badger State appears to remain stagnant.

In the most recent Gallup national poll taken in mid-August, Clinton had a 21-point lead over Barack Obama, 42 to 21 percent. The fact that Clinton nearly received more than 40 percent in a poll that also included (non-candidate) Al Gore (at 15 percent) indicates Clinton is making great strides in her national campaign among Democrats (Rudy Giuliani only received the support of 32 percent when matched up against his fellow GOP rivals in the August Gallup survey).

In Wisconsin, however, Clinton is not gaining ground against her chief Republican rivals in head-to-head pairings. In 7 months of consecutive polling by SurveyUSA, Clinton has failed to reach the 50 percent mark against Giuliani in every poll—in a state that has voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last five presidential elections. In the mid-August 2007 SurveyUSA poll, Giuliani and Clinton were tied 46-46 in the Badger State—nearly identical to the 47-45 edge Giuliani held back in February 2007.

Neither does Clinton fare any better against struggling GOP candidate John McCain. In July 2006, Clinton held a 46-36 lead over McCain in a Rasmussen survey; in mid-August 2007 Rasmussen measured Clinton's advantage over McCain in Wisconsin to have been cut in half to just five points—44 to 39 percent.

When paired against Fred Thompson in Wisconsin, Clinton held a 46-43 percent lead in mid-April 2007 and a 48-45 percent lead in the most recent mid-August 2007 poll (SurveyUSA).

Finally, Clinton's lead over Mitt Romney has dropped from double digit leads in March (51-37), May (52-37), and July (52-39) to just 7 points in mid-August (49-42) (SurveyUSA).

Thus, while Clinton appears to be successful at the moment in bolstering the support of the Democratic base (expanding her lead nationally for the nomination), her raw numbers in general election matchups are not moving in her favor in key battleground states like Wisconsin.

Clinton has very high negative favorability numbers in Wisconsin (49 percent in a mid-August 2007 Rasmussen poll). This means Clinton will be fighting a difficult battle in her hopes to pry away enough independents and liberal Republican supporters to win the Badger State, should she become the Democratic Party nominee.

Previous post: Romney Catapults To Big Lead In Iowa After Straw Poll Victory
Next post: Sen. Johnson Makes First Public Appearance in SD Since Illness

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting