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Clinton Not Gaining Ground In Wisconsin

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Despite surging to large double-digit leads in national Democratic presidential nomination polls, Hillary Clinton's support in the Badger State appears to remain stagnant.

In the most recent Gallup national poll taken in mid-August, Clinton had a 21-point lead over Barack Obama, 42 to 21 percent. The fact that Clinton nearly received more than 40 percent in a poll that also included (non-candidate) Al Gore (at 15 percent) indicates Clinton is making great strides in her national campaign among Democrats (Rudy Giuliani only received the support of 32 percent when matched up against his fellow GOP rivals in the August Gallup survey).

In Wisconsin, however, Clinton is not gaining ground against her chief Republican rivals in head-to-head pairings. In 7 months of consecutive polling by SurveyUSA, Clinton has failed to reach the 50 percent mark against Giuliani in every poll—in a state that has voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last five presidential elections. In the mid-August 2007 SurveyUSA poll, Giuliani and Clinton were tied 46-46 in the Badger State—nearly identical to the 47-45 edge Giuliani held back in February 2007.

Neither does Clinton fare any better against struggling GOP candidate John McCain. In July 2006, Clinton held a 46-36 lead over McCain in a Rasmussen survey; in mid-August 2007 Rasmussen measured Clinton's advantage over McCain in Wisconsin to have been cut in half to just five points—44 to 39 percent.

When paired against Fred Thompson in Wisconsin, Clinton held a 46-43 percent lead in mid-April 2007 and a 48-45 percent lead in the most recent mid-August 2007 poll (SurveyUSA).

Finally, Clinton's lead over Mitt Romney has dropped from double digit leads in March (51-37), May (52-37), and July (52-39) to just 7 points in mid-August (49-42) (SurveyUSA).

Thus, while Clinton appears to be successful at the moment in bolstering the support of the Democratic base (expanding her lead nationally for the nomination), her raw numbers in general election matchups are not moving in her favor in key battleground states like Wisconsin.

Clinton has very high negative favorability numbers in Wisconsin (49 percent in a mid-August 2007 Rasmussen poll). This means Clinton will be fighting a difficult battle in her hopes to pry away enough independents and liberal Republican supporters to win the Badger State, should she become the Democratic Party nominee.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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