Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


How Predictive Are the Iowa Caucuses?

Bookmark and Share

As the first state to select delegates in Election 2008, the Iowa caucuses are understandably considered very important in the presidential nomination process. The caucuses present an opportunity for national frontrunners to solidify their lead as well as underdogs in national polls to gain momentum heading into New Hampshire and the Super Tuesdays thereafter.

But how predictive have the Iowa caucuses been in determining the eventual presidential nominee? An examination of contested party caucuses—that is, election years in which a sitting president is not seeking re-election—reveals the winner of the caucuses go on to secure the nomination just shy of half the time. However, the caucuses have been increasingly predictive in recent years.

On the Democratic side, since 1972 the eventual nominee has won 3 of the 7 such caucuses: John Kerry (2004), Al Gore (2000), and Walter Mondale (1984). In 1972 George McGovern lost by 13 points to Edmund Muskie, in 1988 Michael Dukakis finished in third place (9 points behind Dick Gephardt), and in 1992 Bill Clinton finished in third place (73 points behind Iowa native Senator Tom Harkin). In 1976 Jimmy Carter (28 percent) was the leading candidate, though "Uncommitted" caucus-goers totaled 37 percent of the total vote.

On the Republican side, the eventual nominee has won 2 of the 4 caucuses since 1972 in which sitting presidents were not running: George W. Bush (2000) and Bob Dole (1996). In 1988 George H.W. Bush placed third (18 points behind Dole), and in 1980 Ronald Reagan finished in second place (2 points behind George H. W. Bush).

From Bob Dole (1996), to Al Gore (2000), to George W. Bush (2000), to John Kerry (2004), the current trend favors those candidates who seize first place in Iowa to eventually win the nomination. No doubt this trend is partially due to some correlation (e.g. those candidates who have been successful in raising money before the Iowa caucuses tend to do well there and in the primaries thereafter) as well as causation (the Iowa bounce has undeniably helped some candidates—such as Kerry in 2004, who had previously been trailing Howard Dean in New Hampshire).

Previous post: ABC News / Wash. Post Iowa Poll: Romney Up Big, 3-Way Race for Dems
Next post: GOP Holds on to MN 28B House Seat; But What Does It Mean?

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting