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Romney, Clinton Lead In New ARG Iowa Poll

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Mitt Romney has opened up a 10-point lead in the latest American Research Group (ARG) poll of likely Republican Iowa caucus voters. Romney had trailed Giuliani by one point in ARG's previous poll in late July, but the former Massachusetts Governor now leads all GOP contenders in the most recent surveys by every public pollster:

ARG: 27-17 over Giuliani (August 26-29)
Zogby: 33-14 over Giuliani (August 17-18)
ABC News / Washington Post: 25-14 over Giuliani (July 26-31)
KCCI-TV / Research 2000: 25-14 over Fred Thompson (June 23-25)
Mason-Dixon: 25-21 over Thompson (June 13-16)
Iowa Poll (Des Moines Register): 29-16 over Giuliani and John McCain (May 12-16)

In the new ARG poll, Mike Huckabee has surged to 14 percent—good for third place. Huckabee had never received more than 2 percent in any of ARG's previous eight surveys, so the former Arkansas Governor is definitely benefiting within the Hawkeye State (if not nationally) from his strong showing in the Iowa Straw Poll conducted earlier in the month.

Fred Thompson, who will be officially launching his presidential campaign on September 6th, was fourth in the new ARG poll with 13 percent, followed by non-candidate Newt Gingirch at 7 percent, Senator John McCain at 5 percent, and Congressmen Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter at 1 percent each.

McCain has tumbled from 29 percent in ARG's March Iowa survey to 26 percent in April, 25 percent in May, 13 percent in June, to just 5 percent this month. In a poll released today by Arizona State University, the Senator is also just barely leading Romney in his home state of Arizona, 24-19 percent.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads the pack for the fourth straight monthly ARG poll in Iowa. However, at 28 percent, Clinton's measured support was at its second lowest level across nine polls since December 2006. Barack Obama registered his highest level of support in Iowa at 23 percent, followed by John Edwards (20 percent), Bill Richardson (13 percent), Dennis Kucinich (3 percent), Joe Biden (1 percent), and Chris Dodd (1 percent).

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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