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Romney, Clinton Lead In New ARG Iowa Poll

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Mitt Romney has opened up a 10-point lead in the latest American Research Group (ARG) poll of likely Republican Iowa caucus voters. Romney had trailed Giuliani by one point in ARG's previous poll in late July, but the former Massachusetts Governor now leads all GOP contenders in the most recent surveys by every public pollster:

ARG: 27-17 over Giuliani (August 26-29)
Zogby: 33-14 over Giuliani (August 17-18)
ABC News / Washington Post: 25-14 over Giuliani (July 26-31)
KCCI-TV / Research 2000: 25-14 over Fred Thompson (June 23-25)
Mason-Dixon: 25-21 over Thompson (June 13-16)
Iowa Poll (Des Moines Register): 29-16 over Giuliani and John McCain (May 12-16)

In the new ARG poll, Mike Huckabee has surged to 14 percent—good for third place. Huckabee had never received more than 2 percent in any of ARG's previous eight surveys, so the former Arkansas Governor is definitely benefiting within the Hawkeye State (if not nationally) from his strong showing in the Iowa Straw Poll conducted earlier in the month.

Fred Thompson, who will be officially launching his presidential campaign on September 6th, was fourth in the new ARG poll with 13 percent, followed by non-candidate Newt Gingirch at 7 percent, Senator John McCain at 5 percent, and Congressmen Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter at 1 percent each.

McCain has tumbled from 29 percent in ARG's March Iowa survey to 26 percent in April, 25 percent in May, 13 percent in June, to just 5 percent this month. In a poll released today by Arizona State University, the Senator is also just barely leading Romney in his home state of Arizona, 24-19 percent.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads the pack for the fourth straight monthly ARG poll in Iowa. However, at 28 percent, Clinton's measured support was at its second lowest level across nine polls since December 2006. Barack Obama registered his highest level of support in Iowa at 23 percent, followed by John Edwards (20 percent), Bill Richardson (13 percent), Dennis Kucinich (3 percent), Joe Biden (1 percent), and Chris Dodd (1 percent).

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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