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Early Signs Edwards Most Electable Democrat in Key Battleground States

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While Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue their 1-2 punch in all national polls and most state polls, John Edwards consistently fares the best among the Democratic field when matched up against the leading Republican contenders. This is especially the case in key battleground states.

In recent polling in Iowa (KCCI-TV), Ohio (Quinnipiac), and Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac), Hillary Clinton holds a lead in head-to-head matchups against Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson in all three states, by a combined sum of 85 points (+13 against Giuliani, +36 against Romney, and +36 against Thompson).

Barack Obama falls just short of that, leading in all matchups except against Giuliani in Pennyslvania. Overall, the Illinois Senator leads the three candidates by a combined sum of 80 points (+5 against Giuliani, +39 against Romney, and +36 against Thompson).

While Edwards is also in a dead heat against Giuliani in Pennsylvania (down by 2 points), he has significantly bigger leads overall, especially against Thompson and Romney. Edwards leads the three GOP candidates by the combined sum of 123 points (+14 against Giuliani, +55 against Romney, and +54 against Thompson).

During recent endorsements during the past week, key labor unions have stated they felt Edwards was the Democrat most likely to be successful in a general election campaign. His big early lead in polls against the Republicans in key battleground states seems to bolster the views of these labor groups.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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