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Early Signs Edwards Most Electable Democrat in Key Battleground States

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While Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue their 1-2 punch in all national polls and most state polls, John Edwards consistently fares the best among the Democratic field when matched up against the leading Republican contenders. This is especially the case in key battleground states.

In recent polling in Iowa (KCCI-TV), Ohio (Quinnipiac), and Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac), Hillary Clinton holds a lead in head-to-head matchups against Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson in all three states, by a combined sum of 85 points (+13 against Giuliani, +36 against Romney, and +36 against Thompson).

Barack Obama falls just short of that, leading in all matchups except against Giuliani in Pennyslvania. Overall, the Illinois Senator leads the three candidates by a combined sum of 80 points (+5 against Giuliani, +39 against Romney, and +36 against Thompson).

While Edwards is also in a dead heat against Giuliani in Pennsylvania (down by 2 points), he has significantly bigger leads overall, especially against Thompson and Romney. Edwards leads the three GOP candidates by the combined sum of 123 points (+14 against Giuliani, +55 against Romney, and +54 against Thompson).

During recent endorsements during the past week, key labor unions have stated they felt Edwards was the Democrat most likely to be successful in a general election campaign. His big early lead in polls against the Republicans in key battleground states seems to bolster the views of these labor groups.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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