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Franken and Ciresi Close In Further On Sen. Coleman in New Poll

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In a new poll released today by Rasmussen Reports, Republican Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman now holds 5 and 4-point leads over his chief rivals—Al Franken and Mike Ciresi respectively.

The poll, conducted September 6th of 500 likely voters in the Gopher State, finds Al Franken has closed the gap from a 46-36 deficit in a March 2007 Rasmussen poll to 46-41. Franken is only viewed favorably by 46 percent of Minnesotans, with a very high number (47 percent) already having an unfavorable view of the satirist and actor.

Mike Ciresi trails Coleman 46 to 42 percent and also has higher unfavorable numbers (43 percent) than favorable (40 percent).

Coleman's favorable numbers are actually quite good—54 percent—with 46 percent having an unfavorable view - Minnesotans seemed to have formed an opinion of their senior senator one way or the other. Coleman's problem is that he is unable to reach the 50 percent support mark in election matchups against his DFL rivals despite the high unfavorability rankings of Franken and Ciresi.

In the previous public polling matchups between the candidates (SurveyUSA, July 2007), Coleman had a 49-42 lead on Franken and 48-42 lead over Ciresi.

The new Rasmussen numbers indicate that Minnesota's Senate race remains one of the prized targets for the Democrats in the coming election.

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Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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