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John Edwards Fares Best in Head-to-Head Matchups In Iowa

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Despite the fact that most recent public polls find John Edwards trailing Hillary Clinton in Iowa's Democratic Party caucus horserace, Edwards fares the best among his chief Democratic Party rivals when matched up against the leading GOP candidates.

A mid-September poll of registered voters by SurveyUSA measured all head-to-head general election matchup combinations between Democrats Clinton, Edwards, and Barack Obama and Republicans Giuliani, Romney, and Fred Thompson.

Edwards performed far and away the best among all six candidates with a net 47-point advantage over Giuliani (+14), Thompson (+17), and Romney (+16). Obama was the second strongest candidate, with a net 28-point advantage over Giuliani (+8), Thompson (+10), and Romney (+10). Clinton was the weakest of the three Democrats, with a net 21-point advantage over Giuliani (+8), Thompson (+6), and Romney (+7).

Giuliani (-30 net point disadvantage) fared only slightly better than Thompson (-33 points) and Romney (-33 points).

These early pairings indicate not only that Edwards is still a strong candidate in Iowa, but that the Hawkeye State—which narrowly voted for President George W. Bush in 2004—is clearly leaning Democratic at this time for the upcoming 2008 election.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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