Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


John Edwards Fares Best in Head-to-Head Matchups In Iowa

Bookmark and Share

Despite the fact that most recent public polls find John Edwards trailing Hillary Clinton in Iowa's Democratic Party caucus horserace, Edwards fares the best among his chief Democratic Party rivals when matched up against the leading GOP candidates.

A mid-September poll of registered voters by SurveyUSA measured all head-to-head general election matchup combinations between Democrats Clinton, Edwards, and Barack Obama and Republicans Giuliani, Romney, and Fred Thompson.

Edwards performed far and away the best among all six candidates with a net 47-point advantage over Giuliani (+14), Thompson (+17), and Romney (+16). Obama was the second strongest candidate, with a net 28-point advantage over Giuliani (+8), Thompson (+10), and Romney (+10). Clinton was the weakest of the three Democrats, with a net 21-point advantage over Giuliani (+8), Thompson (+6), and Romney (+7).

Giuliani (-30 net point disadvantage) fared only slightly better than Thompson (-33 points) and Romney (-33 points).

These early pairings indicate not only that Edwards is still a strong candidate in Iowa, but that the Hawkeye State—which narrowly voted for President George W. Bush in 2004—is clearly leaning Democratic at this time for the upcoming 2008 election.

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

A Brief History of "Representative Smith"

A look back at the 115 "Smiths" to serve in the House as newly-minted U.S. Representative Jason Smith of Missouri adds his name to the roster.

Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting