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Michigan Decision Likely To Shift Primary Schedule Once Again

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Michigan's decision to move its primary to January 15, 2008—a decision signed into law yesterday by Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm—is sure to have a domino effect on the primary calendar, perhaps moving Iowa's caucuses up to December 2007.

New Hampshire was slated to be the nation's first primary on January 22nd (though South Carolina had already planned to hold its Republican primary on January 19th). New Hampshire will undoubtedly move its primary date up in the month as its "first in the nation" status is actually written into state law.

Republican and Democratic National Party rules have sanctions against states that hold their primaries earlier than prescribed by the party (this election season, February 5th is the cut-off point). After Florida moved its primary up to January 29th, proposed sanctions include having the state lose up to half of its delegates.

The decision by states such as Florida and Michigan appear to indicate they believe having half the delegates in an early contest that means something is more important than having all the delegates count in a primary which means little later in the election season.

Iowa's Governor Chet Culver has assured that his state will hold the nation's first presidential contest—which could mean caucuses in December 2007. That would be several weeks early than the Iowa caucuses held in 2004 (January 19th), 2000 (January 24th), and 1996 (February 12th).

Influential smaller states like Iowa and New Hampshire have not surprisingly been resistant to the recent call by some to have a 'national primary day.'

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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