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Michigan Decision Likely To Shift Primary Schedule Once Again

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Michigan's decision to move its primary to January 15, 2008—a decision signed into law yesterday by Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm—is sure to have a domino effect on the primary calendar, perhaps moving Iowa's caucuses up to December 2007.

New Hampshire was slated to be the nation's first primary on January 22nd (though South Carolina had already planned to hold its Republican primary on January 19th). New Hampshire will undoubtedly move its primary date up in the month as its "first in the nation" status is actually written into state law.

Republican and Democratic National Party rules have sanctions against states that hold their primaries earlier than prescribed by the party (this election season, February 5th is the cut-off point). After Florida moved its primary up to January 29th, proposed sanctions include having the state lose up to half of its delegates.

The decision by states such as Florida and Michigan appear to indicate they believe having half the delegates in an early contest that means something is more important than having all the delegates count in a primary which means little later in the election season.

Iowa's Governor Chet Culver has assured that his state will hold the nation's first presidential contest—which could mean caucuses in December 2007. That would be several weeks early than the Iowa caucuses held in 2004 (January 19th), 2000 (January 24th), and 1996 (February 12th).

Influential smaller states like Iowa and New Hampshire have not surprisingly been resistant to the recent call by some to have a 'national primary day.'

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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