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Clinton Rolls Over GOP in MN ; McCain Toughest Competitor

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The latest match-up polls between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and each of the top six Republican presidential hopefuls shows the U.S. Senator from New York with huge double-digit leads over all candidates except John McCain.

The SurveyUSA poll of registered voters finds Clinton with big leads over national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani, southern frontrunner Fred Thompson, Iowa and New Hampshire frontrunner Mitt Romney, dark horse Mike Huckabee, and the most controversial candidate in the Republican field, Ron Paul:

Clinton 51%—Giuliani 40%
Clinton 57%—Thompson 37%
Clinton 57% - Romney 34%
Clinton 60% - Huckabee 30%
Clinton 61% - Paul 28%

Only Arizona Senator John McCain, who has experienced a resurgence in favorable media coverage since his September New Hampshire debate performance, is within shouting distance of the former First Lady in the Gopher State:
Clinton 50% - McCain 43%.

McCain, who is polling in third or fourth place in all national polls, fares the best against Clinton in match-up polls conducted by SurveyUSA in states across the country. In fact, Giuliani does not measure up more favorably than McCain in any of the ten states surveyed:

* In New Mexico, McCain leads Clinton by 7 points, with Giuliani up by just 1 point.
* In Kansas, McCain leads by 26 points, with Giuliani leading by 17 points.
* In Alabama, McCain is up 9 points over Clinton, with Giuliani up by 8 points.
* In Kentucky, McCain leads Clinton by 4 points, with Giuliani down by 2 points.
* In Washington, McCain is up by 1 point over Clinton, with Giuliani trailing by 7 points.
* In Ohio, McCain and Clinton are tied, with Giuliani trailing by 2 points.
* In Wisconsin, McCain is within 1 point of Clinton, with Giuliani 7 points behind.
* In Missouri, McCain trails by 3 points, with Giuliani 7 points back
* In Iowa, McCain and Giuliani both trail Clinton by 5 points.

This polling data contradicts the conventional wisdom that the Republican's safest bet to defeat Clinton is to nominate Giuliani.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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