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Clinton Unable To Pull Away from GOP in WI

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A new survey of likely Wisconsin voters finds Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a dead heat against three of the top four Republican candidates. Even though Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984, and even though George W. Bush has a current job approval rating of 36 percent, Clinton does not receive more than 45 percent support in matchups against Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, or Mitt Romney, according to an October 3 Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters.

Wisconsin has decidedly leaned Democratic in recent years. In 2006, the party picked up an open U.S. House seat, won back control of the State Senate, and picked up 8 seats in the State Assembly. The Badger State also re-elected Democratic Governor Jim Doyle, despite the Governor carrying job approval ratings in the mid-40s throughout much of 2006 (Doyle has a 38 percent approval rating in the new Rasmussen survey).

Despite this pro-Democratic Party trend, the state is not enamored thus far with the former First Lady. Clinton has a very high 47 percent unfavorable rating, but remains competitive because Giuliani (44 percent), McCain (44 percent), and Romney (48 percent) have high unfavorable ratings as well (Thompson's unfavorable rating was 39 percent, with 12 percent undecided).

In head-to-head matchups, Clinton leads Giuliani 43-42 percent, Thompson 44-41 percent, and McCain 43-40 percent—all within the margin of error. Clinton leads Romney 45-35 percent. Matchups for this Rasmussen poll were not conducted with Barack Obama and John Edwards, the other top Democratic contenders.

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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