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Clinton Unable To Pull Away from GOP in WI

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A new survey of likely Wisconsin voters finds Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a dead heat against three of the top four Republican candidates. Even though Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984, and even though George W. Bush has a current job approval rating of 36 percent, Clinton does not receive more than 45 percent support in matchups against Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, or Mitt Romney, according to an October 3 Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters.

Wisconsin has decidedly leaned Democratic in recent years. In 2006, the party picked up an open U.S. House seat, won back control of the State Senate, and picked up 8 seats in the State Assembly. The Badger State also re-elected Democratic Governor Jim Doyle, despite the Governor carrying job approval ratings in the mid-40s throughout much of 2006 (Doyle has a 38 percent approval rating in the new Rasmussen survey).

Despite this pro-Democratic Party trend, the state is not enamored thus far with the former First Lady. Clinton has a very high 47 percent unfavorable rating, but remains competitive because Giuliani (44 percent), McCain (44 percent), and Romney (48 percent) have high unfavorable ratings as well (Thompson's unfavorable rating was 39 percent, with 12 percent undecided).

In head-to-head matchups, Clinton leads Giuliani 43-42 percent, Thompson 44-41 percent, and McCain 43-40 percent—all within the margin of error. Clinton leads Romney 45-35 percent. Matchups for this Rasmussen poll were not conducted with Barack Obama and John Edwards, the other top Democratic contenders.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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