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Clinton Unable To Pull Away from GOP in WI

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A new survey of likely Wisconsin voters finds Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a dead heat against three of the top four Republican candidates. Even though Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984, and even though George W. Bush has a current job approval rating of 36 percent, Clinton does not receive more than 45 percent support in matchups against Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, or Mitt Romney, according to an October 3 Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters.

Wisconsin has decidedly leaned Democratic in recent years. In 2006, the party picked up an open U.S. House seat, won back control of the State Senate, and picked up 8 seats in the State Assembly. The Badger State also re-elected Democratic Governor Jim Doyle, despite the Governor carrying job approval ratings in the mid-40s throughout much of 2006 (Doyle has a 38 percent approval rating in the new Rasmussen survey).

Despite this pro-Democratic Party trend, the state is not enamored thus far with the former First Lady. Clinton has a very high 47 percent unfavorable rating, but remains competitive because Giuliani (44 percent), McCain (44 percent), and Romney (48 percent) have high unfavorable ratings as well (Thompson's unfavorable rating was 39 percent, with 12 percent undecided).

In head-to-head matchups, Clinton leads Giuliani 43-42 percent, Thompson 44-41 percent, and McCain 43-40 percent—all within the margin of error. Clinton leads Romney 45-35 percent. Matchups for this Rasmussen poll were not conducted with Barack Obama and John Edwards, the other top Democratic contenders.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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