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First MN Poll of Pres. Primary Matchups Released

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The Star Tribune's Minnesota Poll has released the first public poll of Democratic and Republican primary matchups in the Gopher State. It should be noted that the poll, conducted from a sample of 802 adults from September 18-23, has a very large margin of error for the Democratic (MoE = 8.0) and Republican (MoE = 9.0) subgroups. Most public state polls employ a larger sample of interviewees, with a margin of error between 3 and 5 points. Also, the Minnesota Poll was conducted among adults only, not registered or likely primary voters (only a fraction of adults participate in the primary process).

Unlike the very competitive race among the Democrats that is going on south of the border in Iowa, Hillary Clinton (47 percent) has more than double the support of Barack Obama (22 percent), her nearest competitor in Minnesota. John Edwards, who received 27 percent of the open caucus vote in Minnesota back in March 2004, came in third with 16 percent. All other candidates received 2 percent or less with 7 percent undecided.

The Republican race is much more competitive, with Rudy Giuliani leading the way with 27 percent, followed by John McCain (22 percent), and Fred Thompson (16 percent). Mitt Romney, who has been ahead in Iowa polling for several months and who has run television ads in Minnesota, came in fourth at 5 percent. Tom Tancredo (3 percent), Mike Huckabee (2 percent), Ron Paul (2 percent), Duncan Hunter (1 percent), and Sam Brownback (1 percent) rounded out the bottom tier. Eleven percent were undecided.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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