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Latest IA Poll: Clinton Continues to Lead, GOP Race Tightens

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In American Research Group's (ARG) 10th consecutive monthly poll of likely Iowa caucus voters, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack for the 9th time. Clinton reached the 30 percent support mark for the 8th time, good for a 6-point lead over Barack Obama. At 24 percent, this was the largest amount of measured support for Obama since ARG began polling in December 2006.

The poll found 19 percent support for John Edwards—a decline for the third straight month after reaching 29 percent in June 2007. Edwards, who had lead in many public polls in Iowa during the Spring and early Summer, now trails Clinton in almost all recent surveys.

Rounding out the Democratic field were Bill Richardson (10 percent), Joe Biden (3 percent), Chris Dodd (1 percent), Dennis Kucinich (1 percent), and Mike Gravel (0 percent). Thirteen percent of likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided.

On the Republican side ARG's poll shows the race has tightened, with Mitt Romney's double-digit lead in August 2007 now within the margin of error. ARG measured Romney's support at 22 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 21 percent, and Fred Thompson at 16 percent.

John McCain, who is perceived to have had strong debate performances of late, including a high-profile debate in New Hampshire last month, received 11 percent, up from 5 percent in August.

Support for Mike Huckabee, who was second in Iowa's August Straw Poll, dropped from 14 percent in August to 4 percent in the new poll. Huckabee was followed by Sam Brownback (2 percent), Duncan Hunter (2 percent), Ron Paul (2 percent), Tom Tancredo (1 percent), and new GOP candidate Alan Keyes (1 percent).

Newt Gingrich, who recently announced he would not be seeking the Republican nomination, received 5 percent. Thirteen percent of likely Republican caucus voters were undecided.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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