Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Latest IA Poll: Clinton Continues to Lead, GOP Race Tightens

Bookmark and Share

In American Research Group's (ARG) 10th consecutive monthly poll of likely Iowa caucus voters, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack for the 9th time. Clinton reached the 30 percent support mark for the 8th time, good for a 6-point lead over Barack Obama. At 24 percent, this was the largest amount of measured support for Obama since ARG began polling in December 2006.

The poll found 19 percent support for John Edwards—a decline for the third straight month after reaching 29 percent in June 2007. Edwards, who had lead in many public polls in Iowa during the Spring and early Summer, now trails Clinton in almost all recent surveys.

Rounding out the Democratic field were Bill Richardson (10 percent), Joe Biden (3 percent), Chris Dodd (1 percent), Dennis Kucinich (1 percent), and Mike Gravel (0 percent). Thirteen percent of likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided.

On the Republican side ARG's poll shows the race has tightened, with Mitt Romney's double-digit lead in August 2007 now within the margin of error. ARG measured Romney's support at 22 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 21 percent, and Fred Thompson at 16 percent.

John McCain, who is perceived to have had strong debate performances of late, including a high-profile debate in New Hampshire last month, received 11 percent, up from 5 percent in August.

Support for Mike Huckabee, who was second in Iowa's August Straw Poll, dropped from 14 percent in August to 4 percent in the new poll. Huckabee was followed by Sam Brownback (2 percent), Duncan Hunter (2 percent), Ron Paul (2 percent), Tom Tancredo (1 percent), and new GOP candidate Alan Keyes (1 percent).

Newt Gingrich, who recently announced he would not be seeking the Republican nomination, received 5 percent. Thirteen percent of likely Republican caucus voters were undecided.

Previous post: Democrats Still Lead GOP Presidential Hopefuls in MN
Next post: First MN Poll of Pres. Primary Matchups Released

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting