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Latest IA Poll Shows No Change At the Top

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Another survey of likely caucus voters in Iowa finds Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton in the lead once again.

The new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted October 1-3 measures Romney's support at 29 percent, virtually the same level measured back in the paper's last poll in May (30 percent).

While Romney has experienced a small downturn in support in some New Hampshire public polls during the past month, he has not relinquished his lead in surveys of Hawkeye State voters. In the new Iowa Poll, Romney has an 11-point lead over Fred Thompson (18 percent). Romney also held a 12-point lead over Giuliani and Thompson in the September Los Angeles Times poll, a 9-point lead over Thompson in the late September Newsweek poll, and a 1-point lead over Rudy Giuliani in the September American Research Group poll (within the margin of error).

The Des Moines Register poll finds Mike Huckabee in third place at 12 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani (11 percent), John McCain (7 percent), Tom Tancredo (5 percent), Ron Paul (4 percent), Sam Brownback (2 percent), Alan Keyes (2 percent), and Duncan Hunter (1 percent).

On the Democratic side, Clinton also led the way with 29 percent, with still-competitive John Edwards (23 percent) and Barack Obama (22 percent) close behind. It is unclear how much support for Edwards and Obama is 'anti-Clinton,' but it is likely both Edwards and Obama are to some degree splitting the anti-Clinton vote to her advantage. Obama's campaign is well-funded and Edwards is unlikely to depart the race before the Iowa Caucuses; so unless and until one of these challengers departs the race neither may be in a competitive position to overtake Clinton nationwide.

Rounding out Democrats, the Iowa Poll found Bill Richardson in fourth place as per usual (8 percent), followed by Joe Biden (5 percent), Chris Dodd (1 percent), and Dennis Kucinich (1 percent).

In a bit of a rarity this election season, more Democratic caucus voters (11 percent) were unsure as to which candidate they would support compared to those voting in the Republican caucus (9 percent).

Previous post: Iowa Democratic Caucus Time Capsule: October 2003
Next post: Clinton Unable To Pull Away from GOP in WI

1 Comment


  • This Clinton supports John Edwards.Hillary Clinton will forget Iowa the minute her plane or leaves.I was born in Iowa and have many relatives there. The Clintons are not their kind of people.

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    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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