Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Latest IA Poll Shows No Change At the Top

Bookmark and Share

Another survey of likely caucus voters in Iowa finds Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton in the lead once again.

The new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted October 1-3 measures Romney's support at 29 percent, virtually the same level measured back in the paper's last poll in May (30 percent).

While Romney has experienced a small downturn in support in some New Hampshire public polls during the past month, he has not relinquished his lead in surveys of Hawkeye State voters. In the new Iowa Poll, Romney has an 11-point lead over Fred Thompson (18 percent). Romney also held a 12-point lead over Giuliani and Thompson in the September Los Angeles Times poll, a 9-point lead over Thompson in the late September Newsweek poll, and a 1-point lead over Rudy Giuliani in the September American Research Group poll (within the margin of error).

The Des Moines Register poll finds Mike Huckabee in third place at 12 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani (11 percent), John McCain (7 percent), Tom Tancredo (5 percent), Ron Paul (4 percent), Sam Brownback (2 percent), Alan Keyes (2 percent), and Duncan Hunter (1 percent).

On the Democratic side, Clinton also led the way with 29 percent, with still-competitive John Edwards (23 percent) and Barack Obama (22 percent) close behind. It is unclear how much support for Edwards and Obama is 'anti-Clinton,' but it is likely both Edwards and Obama are to some degree splitting the anti-Clinton vote to her advantage. Obama's campaign is well-funded and Edwards is unlikely to depart the race before the Iowa Caucuses; so unless and until one of these challengers departs the race neither may be in a competitive position to overtake Clinton nationwide.

Rounding out Democrats, the Iowa Poll found Bill Richardson in fourth place as per usual (8 percent), followed by Joe Biden (5 percent), Chris Dodd (1 percent), and Dennis Kucinich (1 percent).

In a bit of a rarity this election season, more Democratic caucus voters (11 percent) were unsure as to which candidate they would support compared to those voting in the Republican caucus (9 percent).

Previous post: Iowa Democratic Caucus Time Capsule: October 2003
Next post: Clinton Unable To Pull Away from GOP in WI

1 Comment


  • This Clinton supports John Edwards.Hillary Clinton will forget Iowa the minute her plane or leaves.I was born in Iowa and have many relatives there. The Clintons are not their kind of people.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

    At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

    Political Crumbs

    The Second Time Around

    Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


    How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

    Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting