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Presidential Politics in Minnesota: A Historical Overview

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Since Minnesotans cast their first presidential ballots in 1860, nearly 1 million more votes have been marked for Democratic (Democrat + DFL) presidential nominees compared to votes for Republican nominees, out of more than 38.6 million votes cast across 37 presidential elections. However, a larger percentage of votes (based on yearly percentages) have been cast for Republicans (50 percent) than Democrats (43 percent) due to the fact that the Democratic trend began just prior to the mid-20th Century when the state's voting age population increased substantially.

Minnesota has been on the winning side of Presidential politics in just less than three-quarters (73 percent) of elections—27 of 37 races. The state has been a bit more defiant in following national trends in recent years, voting for the winning president in just 6 of the past 12 elections since 1960.

Overall, the state has voted for more Republicans (20) than Democrats (16), with one third-party nominee winning the state's electoral votes (Progressive Teddy Roosevelt in 1912).

But the trend towards a bluer Minnesota did not begin until Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Since 1932, the state has voted for Democratic presidential nominees in 16 of 19 elections, with the only Republican successes in the state being Dwight D. Eisenhower's 1952 and 1956 campaigns and Richard Nixon's victory in 1972.

Prior to 1932, Republican nominees had won the Gopher State in 17 of 18 elections, with the Democrats failing to capture the state even once. Only three times did the Democratic presidential nominee even get within 10 points of victory:

* In 1916, Woodrow Wilson lost the state by 0.1 points to Republican nominee Charles E. Hughes.
* In 1912, Wilson lost by 5.9 points to Progressive Teddy Roosevelt.
* In 1892, Grover Cleveland lost by 8.2 points to Benjamin Harrison.

Overall, approximately 18.57 million votes (48.1 percent) have been cast in Minnesota for Democratic presidential nominees, compared to 17.57 million (45.5 percent) for Republicans and 2.48 million for third parties (6.4 percent).

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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