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Romney and Clinton Remain On Top In Iowa

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With 75 days until the Iowa Caucuses (at least the Republican Caucus), Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton remain atop their respective party's field in the race for president as measured by the first Rasmussen poll of Iowans (650 likely Republican caucus voters and 1,007 likely Democratic caucus voters; the poll was conducted October 10th and 14th).

Both candidates were recently projected by the University of Virginia's politcal expert Dr. Larry Sabato to face off in the general election. With Romney only polling competitively in the early primary states (and not polling competitively at all in national polls), Sabato must subscribe to the theory that if a candidate wins these early races, the positive media coverage—and perhaps the desire for voters to be on the 'winning side'—propels the candidate to win the nomination. Clinton is leading in both national polls as well as nearly every public state poll across the country.

In the new Rasmussen poll, Romney's support is measured at 25 percent, followed by Fred Thompson (19 percent), and Mike Huckabee (18 percent). This is Huckabee's strongest polling numbers to date in the Hawkeye State. Rudy Giuliani came in fourth at 13 percent, followed by John McCain (6 percent), Sam Brownback (3 percent), Tom Tancredo (2 percent), Ron Paul (2 percent), and Duncan Hunter (1 percent).

On the Democratic side, Clinton remained in front with 33 percent, followed by John Edwards (22 percent), Barack Obama (21 percent), Bill Richardson (7 percent), and Joe Biden (4 percent).

Eleven percent of likely Republican caucus voters and eleven percent of Democratic caucus voters were undecided.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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