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Romney and Clinton Remain On Top In Iowa

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With 75 days until the Iowa Caucuses (at least the Republican Caucus), Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton remain atop their respective party's field in the race for president as measured by the first Rasmussen poll of Iowans (650 likely Republican caucus voters and 1,007 likely Democratic caucus voters; the poll was conducted October 10th and 14th).

Both candidates were recently projected by the University of Virginia's politcal expert Dr. Larry Sabato to face off in the general election. With Romney only polling competitively in the early primary states (and not polling competitively at all in national polls), Sabato must subscribe to the theory that if a candidate wins these early races, the positive media coverage—and perhaps the desire for voters to be on the 'winning side'—propels the candidate to win the nomination. Clinton is leading in both national polls as well as nearly every public state poll across the country.

In the new Rasmussen poll, Romney's support is measured at 25 percent, followed by Fred Thompson (19 percent), and Mike Huckabee (18 percent). This is Huckabee's strongest polling numbers to date in the Hawkeye State. Rudy Giuliani came in fourth at 13 percent, followed by John McCain (6 percent), Sam Brownback (3 percent), Tom Tancredo (2 percent), Ron Paul (2 percent), and Duncan Hunter (1 percent).

On the Democratic side, Clinton remained in front with 33 percent, followed by John Edwards (22 percent), Barack Obama (21 percent), Bill Richardson (7 percent), and Joe Biden (4 percent).

Eleven percent of likely Republican caucus voters and eleven percent of Democratic caucus voters were undecided.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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