Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


The Huckabee Surge Is Real

Bookmark and Share

Mike Huckabee's second place finish in the August 2007 Republican Iowa Straw Poll was largely dismissed at the time, due to the non-participation in the event by three of the leading GOP candidates—Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson (who hadn't yet announced his candidacy at that time).

But Huckabee received some good press for a week and the former Arkansas governor noticed a bump in some state polls shortly thereafter; for example, his support in New Hampshire jumped from 1 percent in late July to 9 percent in late August in an American Research Group (ARG) survey. In Iowa, his numbers also increased from the low single digits to 8 percent (Zogby, August 2007; Los Angeles Times, September 2007) and 14 percent (ARG, August 2007).

Huckabee's support nationally has also been on the rise, according to some pollsters. Rasmussen has measured his support in the double digits throughout the past week in its daily tracking poll, with the former Arkansas Governor currently at 13 percent—just 4 points behind Thompson and 10 points behind Giuliani.

Huckabee's excellent performances in televised debates have certainly helped sustain these numbers—the Baptist minister's tone is well mannered enough to come off as above politics, yet his choice of words delineates his policy positions with clarity, revealing to his Republican audience that he is a man of conviction (unlike the perception of other leading candidates who have been portrayed as flip-floppers (e.g. Romney, Giuliani)).

Mitt Romney has surprised many pundits by leading in Iowa and New Hampshire polls through the past several months, and now also leads in another important early primary state—South Carolina (29 percent, ARG, October 2007). But Romney's support, unlike Huckabee, is correlated to multi-million dollar ad campaigns in these early primary states; Huckabee's campaign isn't nearly as flush.

But Huckabee's numbers are still on the rise in the Hawkeye State, as demonstrated in three recent October Iowa polls: 18 percent (3rd place) in a Rasmussen survey, 13 percent (tied for 2nd) in a University of Iowa survey, and now 19 percent (2nd place) in the latest ARG poll, conducted October 26-29 of 600 likely Republican caucus voters.

In the ARG poll, Romney still leads the way at 27 percent, followed by Huckabee at 19 percent, Giuliani at 16 percent, McCain at 14 percent (his highest numbers since July), Fred Thompson at 8 percent, Tom Tancredo at 2 percent, and Ron Paul at 1 percent. Thirteen percent of Republican caucus-goers were undecided.

Previous post: U of IA Poll Stakes Romney To Biggest Campaign '08 Lead To Date
Next post: Is Kentucky the Next Ohio?

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting