Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


The Huckabee Surge Is Real

Bookmark and Share

Mike Huckabee's second place finish in the August 2007 Republican Iowa Straw Poll was largely dismissed at the time, due to the non-participation in the event by three of the leading GOP candidates—Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson (who hadn't yet announced his candidacy at that time).

But Huckabee received some good press for a week and the former Arkansas governor noticed a bump in some state polls shortly thereafter; for example, his support in New Hampshire jumped from 1 percent in late July to 9 percent in late August in an American Research Group (ARG) survey. In Iowa, his numbers also increased from the low single digits to 8 percent (Zogby, August 2007; Los Angeles Times, September 2007) and 14 percent (ARG, August 2007).

Huckabee's support nationally has also been on the rise, according to some pollsters. Rasmussen has measured his support in the double digits throughout the past week in its daily tracking poll, with the former Arkansas Governor currently at 13 percent—just 4 points behind Thompson and 10 points behind Giuliani.

Huckabee's excellent performances in televised debates have certainly helped sustain these numbers—the Baptist minister's tone is well mannered enough to come off as above politics, yet his choice of words delineates his policy positions with clarity, revealing to his Republican audience that he is a man of conviction (unlike the perception of other leading candidates who have been portrayed as flip-floppers (e.g. Romney, Giuliani)).

Mitt Romney has surprised many pundits by leading in Iowa and New Hampshire polls through the past several months, and now also leads in another important early primary state—South Carolina (29 percent, ARG, October 2007). But Romney's support, unlike Huckabee, is correlated to multi-million dollar ad campaigns in these early primary states; Huckabee's campaign isn't nearly as flush.

But Huckabee's numbers are still on the rise in the Hawkeye State, as demonstrated in three recent October Iowa polls: 18 percent (3rd place) in a Rasmussen survey, 13 percent (tied for 2nd) in a University of Iowa survey, and now 19 percent (2nd place) in the latest ARG poll, conducted October 26-29 of 600 likely Republican caucus voters.

In the ARG poll, Romney still leads the way at 27 percent, followed by Huckabee at 19 percent, Giuliani at 16 percent, McCain at 14 percent (his highest numbers since July), Fred Thompson at 8 percent, Tom Tancredo at 2 percent, and Ron Paul at 1 percent. Thirteen percent of Republican caucus-goers were undecided.

Previous post: U of IA Poll Stakes Romney To Biggest Campaign '08 Lead To Date
Next post: Is Kentucky the Next Ohio?

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting