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Another Day, Another Two New Polls of Iowans

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Two new polls were released Thursday for the presidential race in Iowa, by Rasmussen and American Research Group (ARG), each showing a battle unfolding at the top of the Democratic and Republican tickets.

On the Democratic side, a new Rasmussen poll of 1,239 likely voters found Hillary Clinton at 29 percent, narrowly edging out John Edwards (25 percent) and Barack Obama (24 percent). In the ARG poll of 600 likely voters, Clinton received 27 percent, compared to 21 percent to Obama and 20 percent for Edwards. Bill Richardson (10 percent, 12 percent) and Joe Biden (3 percent, 5 percent) rounded out the top five candidates in the Rasmussen and ARG polls respectively.

Only ARG released results on the GOP side of the ticket today, with Mike Huckabee (24 percent) now within just two points of Mitt Romney (26 percent). Huckabee's surge (discussed here at Smart Politics on October 30th), is throwing a wrench the in the Romney plan: sweeping the small, early states to gain momentum on national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani as the primaries head into Florida and California in late January and early February 2008.

Huckabee's numbers are up 5 points from just two weeks ago in the previous ARG poll and up 20 points since the end of September. Romney's support has remained steady in the Hawkeye State, coming in at 27 percent in ARG's August survey, 22 percent in September, 27 percent in October and 26 percent this week.

Giuliani continues to lag in Iowa at 11 percent—his lowest total (by five points) in Iowa as measured by ARG in 12 surveys since December 2006. Giuliani was tied with Fred Thompson and one point ahead of John McCain (10 percent). Giuliani has not launched a media campaign in Iowa to date, while Romney started his media buys several months ago.

Ron Paul (3 percent), Tom Tancredo (1 percent), and Duncan Hunter (1 percent) round out the GOP field in the ARG survey.

Previous post: Latest IA Poll: Dem. Caucus Heats Up; Romney in Sight For Huckabee
Next post: Richardson and Obama Unlikely to Bolster Support in Iowa After CNN Debate

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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