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Clinton Outperforms Obama in WI Matchups; McCain Strongest Republican

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Hillary Clinton continues to outpoll all of her leading GOP rivals in matchup polls in the Badger State, according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted November 9-11. Clinton also performs better than Barack Obama against these Republican contenders.

Overall, Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain by an average of 11 points, whereas Obama's average lead is 8 points—including trailing McCain by 4 points.

* Clinton leads Giuliani 49-42 percent while Obama leads Giuliani 47-42 percent.
* Clinton leads Romney 53-37; Obama bests Romney by a 50-38 margin.
* Clinton leads McCain 47-45; McCain leads Obama 47-43.
* Clinton and Obama each lead Huckabee by 17 points, 53-36 and 52-35 respectively.

Clinton's 7-point lead over Giuliani is tied for the largest measured by SurveyUSA in 10 consecutive polls conducted in 2007 (Giuliani lead Clinton from February through April).

Obama also seems to be gaining ground on Giuliani in the three matchup polls between the two candidates conducted by SurveyUSA this year. Obama trailed the former New York mayor by 2 points in April, lead by 3 points in September, and now leads by 5 points in the new November poll.

Despite being the strongest GOP candidate across battleground states, McCain's candidacy is plagued by his performance within his party to garner the Republican nomination. McCain polls 3rd or 4th in most national polls, and 5th in the state of Iowa, who will hold its cacuses on January 3rd.

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A look back at the 115 "Smiths" to serve in the House as newly-minted U.S. Representative Jason Smith of Missouri adds his name to the roster.

Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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