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Clinton Outperforms Obama in WI Matchups; McCain Strongest Republican

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Hillary Clinton continues to outpoll all of her leading GOP rivals in matchup polls in the Badger State, according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted November 9-11. Clinton also performs better than Barack Obama against these Republican contenders.

Overall, Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain by an average of 11 points, whereas Obama's average lead is 8 points—including trailing McCain by 4 points.

* Clinton leads Giuliani 49-42 percent while Obama leads Giuliani 47-42 percent.
* Clinton leads Romney 53-37; Obama bests Romney by a 50-38 margin.
* Clinton leads McCain 47-45; McCain leads Obama 47-43.
* Clinton and Obama each lead Huckabee by 17 points, 53-36 and 52-35 respectively.

Clinton's 7-point lead over Giuliani is tied for the largest measured by SurveyUSA in 10 consecutive polls conducted in 2007 (Giuliani lead Clinton from February through April).

Obama also seems to be gaining ground on Giuliani in the three matchup polls between the two candidates conducted by SurveyUSA this year. Obama trailed the former New York mayor by 2 points in April, lead by 3 points in September, and now leads by 5 points in the new November poll.

Despite being the strongest GOP candidate across battleground states, McCain's candidacy is plagued by his performance within his party to garner the Republican nomination. McCain polls 3rd or 4th in most national polls, and 5th in the state of Iowa, who will hold its cacuses on January 3rd.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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