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Clinton Outperforms Obama in WI Matchups; McCain Strongest Republican

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Hillary Clinton continues to outpoll all of her leading GOP rivals in matchup polls in the Badger State, according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted November 9-11. Clinton also performs better than Barack Obama against these Republican contenders.

Overall, Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain by an average of 11 points, whereas Obama's average lead is 8 points—including trailing McCain by 4 points.

* Clinton leads Giuliani 49-42 percent while Obama leads Giuliani 47-42 percent.
* Clinton leads Romney 53-37; Obama bests Romney by a 50-38 margin.
* Clinton leads McCain 47-45; McCain leads Obama 47-43.
* Clinton and Obama each lead Huckabee by 17 points, 53-36 and 52-35 respectively.

Clinton's 7-point lead over Giuliani is tied for the largest measured by SurveyUSA in 10 consecutive polls conducted in 2007 (Giuliani lead Clinton from February through April).

Obama also seems to be gaining ground on Giuliani in the three matchup polls between the two candidates conducted by SurveyUSA this year. Obama trailed the former New York mayor by 2 points in April, lead by 3 points in September, and now leads by 5 points in the new November poll.

Despite being the strongest GOP candidate across battleground states, McCain's candidacy is plagued by his performance within his party to garner the Republican nomination. McCain polls 3rd or 4th in most national polls, and 5th in the state of Iowa, who will hold its cacuses on January 3rd.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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