Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Coleman in Dead Heat With DFL in MN 2008 Senate Race

Bookmark and Share

Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman has seen the 20-point lead he held in February 2007 against both Al Franken and Mike Ciresi dissolve to a tie according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted October 24-28 of 692 registered voters in the Gopher State.

Coleman holds a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 45 percent advantage over Franken, and was tied with Ciresi at 44 percent apiece.

Back in February 2007, SurveyUSA measured Coleman's lead as 22 points over Franken and 21 points over Ciresi. In late July 2007, SurveyUSA measured Coleman's lead as 7 points over Franken and 6 points over Ciresi.

Minnesotans are still not nearly as familiar with Franken (18 percent) and Ciresi (43 percent) as Coleman (6 percent) when asked if they had a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the candidates. The fact that both Franken and Ciresi have both polled at almost exactly the same margin in match-up polls against Coleman all year, and the fact that both candidates are in a dead heat with Coleman this early in the campaign, suggests that Minnesotans are not so much supporting Franken and Ciresi, but opposing Coleman and/or the Republican Party.

This anti-Republican climate was felt strongly last November in Minnesota, when the DFL took back control of the State House by picking up 19 seats, and expanding their lead in the State Senate with a 6-seat gain.

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

A Brief History of "Representative Smith"

A look back at the 115 "Smiths" to serve in the House as newly-minted U.S. Representative Jason Smith of Missouri adds his name to the roster.

Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting