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Coleman in Dead Heat With DFL in MN 2008 Senate Race

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Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman has seen the 20-point lead he held in February 2007 against both Al Franken and Mike Ciresi dissolve to a tie according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted October 24-28 of 692 registered voters in the Gopher State.

Coleman holds a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 45 percent advantage over Franken, and was tied with Ciresi at 44 percent apiece.

Back in February 2007, SurveyUSA measured Coleman's lead as 22 points over Franken and 21 points over Ciresi. In late July 2007, SurveyUSA measured Coleman's lead as 7 points over Franken and 6 points over Ciresi.

Minnesotans are still not nearly as familiar with Franken (18 percent) and Ciresi (43 percent) as Coleman (6 percent) when asked if they had a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the candidates. The fact that both Franken and Ciresi have both polled at almost exactly the same margin in match-up polls against Coleman all year, and the fact that both candidates are in a dead heat with Coleman this early in the campaign, suggests that Minnesotans are not so much supporting Franken and Ciresi, but opposing Coleman and/or the Republican Party.

This anti-Republican climate was felt strongly last November in Minnesota, when the DFL took back control of the State House by picking up 19 seats, and expanding their lead in the State Senate with a 6-seat gain.

Previous post: Presidential Politics in Iowa: A Historical Overview
Next post: Coleman's Lead In Single Digits In New Rasmussen Poll

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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