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Coleman in Dead Heat With DFL in MN 2008 Senate Race

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Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman has seen the 20-point lead he held in February 2007 against both Al Franken and Mike Ciresi dissolve to a tie according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted October 24-28 of 692 registered voters in the Gopher State.

Coleman holds a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 45 percent advantage over Franken, and was tied with Ciresi at 44 percent apiece.

Back in February 2007, SurveyUSA measured Coleman's lead as 22 points over Franken and 21 points over Ciresi. In late July 2007, SurveyUSA measured Coleman's lead as 7 points over Franken and 6 points over Ciresi.

Minnesotans are still not nearly as familiar with Franken (18 percent) and Ciresi (43 percent) as Coleman (6 percent) when asked if they had a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the candidates. The fact that both Franken and Ciresi have both polled at almost exactly the same margin in match-up polls against Coleman all year, and the fact that both candidates are in a dead heat with Coleman this early in the campaign, suggests that Minnesotans are not so much supporting Franken and Ciresi, but opposing Coleman and/or the Republican Party.

This anti-Republican climate was felt strongly last November in Minnesota, when the DFL took back control of the State House by picking up 19 seats, and expanding their lead in the State Senate with a 6-seat gain.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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