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Coleman's Lead In Single Digits In New Rasmussen Poll

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A new Rasmussen poll was released today of 500 likely voters in the Minnesota Senate race that gives Republican Norm Coleman a narrow lead over both candidates, but confirms the race is still 'one to watch' in 2008.

Coleman leads Mike Ciresi by a 46-43 margin in the new survey, conducted October 31st, nearly identical to his 46-42 lead measured in Rasmussen's last poll conducted 8 weeks prior in early September 2007.

Coleman leads Al Franken by a 49-42 margin, slightly higher than the 46-41 percent lead from back in September.

Franken still suffers from the highest unfavorability rating among the three candidate—creeping up from 46 percent in March's Rasmussen poll, to 47 percent in September, to 48 percent in the new October poll. Ciresi's unfavorability rating dropped from 43 percent in September to 40 percent in October.

Coleman still remains a fairly popular figure in the Gopher State according to Rasmussen, with a 56 percent favorability rating (up from 51 percent in March and 54 percent in September), while 42 percent have an unfavorable view of the first term Senator.

Both the Rasmussen poll and yesterday's SurveyUSA poll were conducted by automated phone surveys, however the Rasmussen poll screened for likely voters while the SurveyUSA poll screened for the larger pool of registered voters. As a result, fewer respondents in the Rasmussen poll were undecided as to whom they would vote for in the Coleman-Franken matchup (4 percent vs. 9 percent at SurveyUSA) as well as the Coleman-Ciresi matchup (7 percent vs. 12 percent).

Additionally, approximately twice as many respondents were unfamiliar with the candidates in the SurveyUSA poll as compared to Rasmussen.

Previous post: Coleman in Dead Heat With DFL in MN 2008 Senate Race
Next post: And A 3rd MN Senate Poll: Coleman Still On Top

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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