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Coleman's Lead In Single Digits In New Rasmussen Poll

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A new Rasmussen poll was released today of 500 likely voters in the Minnesota Senate race that gives Republican Norm Coleman a narrow lead over both candidates, but confirms the race is still 'one to watch' in 2008.

Coleman leads Mike Ciresi by a 46-43 margin in the new survey, conducted October 31st, nearly identical to his 46-42 lead measured in Rasmussen's last poll conducted 8 weeks prior in early September 2007.

Coleman leads Al Franken by a 49-42 margin, slightly higher than the 46-41 percent lead from back in September.

Franken still suffers from the highest unfavorability rating among the three candidate—creeping up from 46 percent in March's Rasmussen poll, to 47 percent in September, to 48 percent in the new October poll. Ciresi's unfavorability rating dropped from 43 percent in September to 40 percent in October.

Coleman still remains a fairly popular figure in the Gopher State according to Rasmussen, with a 56 percent favorability rating (up from 51 percent in March and 54 percent in September), while 42 percent have an unfavorable view of the first term Senator.

Both the Rasmussen poll and yesterday's SurveyUSA poll were conducted by automated phone surveys, however the Rasmussen poll screened for likely voters while the SurveyUSA poll screened for the larger pool of registered voters. As a result, fewer respondents in the Rasmussen poll were undecided as to whom they would vote for in the Coleman-Franken matchup (4 percent vs. 9 percent at SurveyUSA) as well as the Coleman-Ciresi matchup (7 percent vs. 12 percent).

Additionally, approximately twice as many respondents were unfamiliar with the candidates in the SurveyUSA poll as compared to Rasmussen.

Previous post: Coleman in Dead Heat With DFL in MN 2008 Senate Race
Next post: And A 3rd MN Senate Poll: Coleman Still On Top

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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