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Democratic Race in Iowa Remains Deadlocked

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While the most open GOP race in several presidential election cycles dominates the political news coverage, the state of Iowa continues to be a stumbling block for Hillary Clinton's coronation as the Democratic nominee. Clinton has dominated in the national polls throughout the year as well as in most state polls, with the exception of the other leading candidates' home states.

Iowans, however, are not yet convinced by the Clinton campaign, and perhaps that is because they have had a strong look at all the candidates, and are not relying so much on name recognition when being asked for whom they would vote. Clinton has struggled to open up the double-digit lead in Iowa that she enjoys nearly everywhere else across the nation.

The latest Rasmussen survey demonstrates a continuation of this trend. In a survey of 1,156 likely Democratic caucus attendees on November 26-27, Clinton, at 27 percent, is in a dead heat with John Edwards (25 percent), and Barack Obama (24 percent). Obama received a swarm of media buzz a week ago when an ABC / Washington Post poll showed the Illinois junior Senator with his first lead in a public poll in the Hawkeye State since July. The truth is no candidate has demonstrated any kind of momentum significant enough to warrant the kind of 'breakthrough' status Mike Huckabee has achieved on the Republican side of the ticket in Iowa.

John Edwards has not led in a public poll since late August (Time Magazine), but either Edwards or Obama has trailed Clinton by just six points or less in 11 of 13 public polls of Iowans released since September.

The new Rasmussen poll measures Bill Richardson's support at 10 percent, followed by Joe Biden at 4 percent while 8 percent are undecided.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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