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Democratic Race in Iowa Remains Deadlocked

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While the most open GOP race in several presidential election cycles dominates the political news coverage, the state of Iowa continues to be a stumbling block for Hillary Clinton's coronation as the Democratic nominee. Clinton has dominated in the national polls throughout the year as well as in most state polls, with the exception of the other leading candidates' home states.

Iowans, however, are not yet convinced by the Clinton campaign, and perhaps that is because they have had a strong look at all the candidates, and are not relying so much on name recognition when being asked for whom they would vote. Clinton has struggled to open up the double-digit lead in Iowa that she enjoys nearly everywhere else across the nation.

The latest Rasmussen survey demonstrates a continuation of this trend. In a survey of 1,156 likely Democratic caucus attendees on November 26-27, Clinton, at 27 percent, is in a dead heat with John Edwards (25 percent), and Barack Obama (24 percent). Obama received a swarm of media buzz a week ago when an ABC / Washington Post poll showed the Illinois junior Senator with his first lead in a public poll in the Hawkeye State since July. The truth is no candidate has demonstrated any kind of momentum significant enough to warrant the kind of 'breakthrough' status Mike Huckabee has achieved on the Republican side of the ticket in Iowa.

John Edwards has not led in a public poll since late August (Time Magazine), but either Edwards or Obama has trailed Clinton by just six points or less in 11 of 13 public polls of Iowans released since September.

The new Rasmussen poll measures Bill Richardson's support at 10 percent, followed by Joe Biden at 4 percent while 8 percent are undecided.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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