Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Huckabee Takes First Lead In Iowa

Bookmark and Share

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has taken his first lead in a public poll of GOP Iowa caucus voters, according to a survey of 839 likely caucus participants conducted November 26-27 by Rasmussen.

While still within the margin of error, Mitt Romney now trails Huckbaee 28 to 25 percent. A Rasmussen poll taken two weeks prior found Romney with a 29 to 16 percent lead over Huckabee. Romney has led the GOP field in almost all public polls conducted in Iowa since June 2007.

In the new Rasmussen poll, it is currently a two-person race for the GOP in the Hawkeye State, with Rudy Giuliani trailing by double digits at 12 percent, followed by Fred Thompson at 11 percent and Ron Paul at 5 percent. John McCain—who is focusing his efforts on South Carolina and New Hampshire—has now fallen into a sixth place tie with Tom Tancredo at 4 percent. Duncan Hunter rounds out the field with 1 percent support while 10 percent are undecided.

Romney's campaign strategy hinges on winning the early, smaller states of Iowa and New Hampshire (where he is still polling with a double-digit lead) to increase his momentum and the accompanying positive media exposure that he hopes will boomerang him into competitive runs in Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida. If Romney does not win the majority of these states, which hold their contests in mid- to late January, the fear for the Romney campaign is that Giuliani (the national frontrunner) will be able to hang on and amass a big win on Super Tuesday on February 5th.

Huckabee's surge in recent weeks has taken most pundits by surprise, and few have outlined a strategy where the former minister can go on to win the Republican nomination. The strategy, however, is this: Huckabee, who surprisingly has not won the endorsements of most prominent conservative religious leaders, is now starting to poll stronger in southern states. Huckabee polled in second place (17 percent) in the latest Insider Advantage poll in Florida and polled in double digits in recent Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls in South Carolina. Huckabee's competitiveness in these southern states appears to be correlated with the declining support for Fred Thompson.

Previous post: Political Influence of Upper Midwest In Decline?
Next post: Democratic Race in Iowa Remains Deadlocked

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected lieutenant governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting