Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Immigration Gaffe Doesn't Erode Clinton's Lead in Iowa...Yet

Bookmark and Share

Hillary Clinton still leads the race for the nod of Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, according to the latest Zogby poll. The survey, conducted November 6 of 502 likely Democratic caucus voters, measures voter preferences a week after an MSNBC Democratic debate in which Clinton had a much-publicized gaffe on the issue of New York State issuing drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants.

Zogby measured Clinton's support at 28 percent, followed by Barack Obama at 25 percent, John Edwards at 21 percent, Bill Richardson at 9 percent, Joe Biden at 3 percent, and Chris Dodd at 1 percent. Twelve percent were undecided.

Some national polls have seen a modest dip in support for Clinton this week—attributing it to her qualified support and "understanding" as to why New York Governor Eliot Spitzer backed a plan to give illegal immigrants drivers' licenses in his state. Clinton was then criticized harshly by several of her Democratic debate opponents, as well as the media and several political strategists and commentators thereafter.

Iowans, like citizens of most of the nation, are generally supportive of tough action against illegal immigration. In an April 2006 Rasmussen poll, respondents favored sending National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexican border by a 58-30 margin, wished to end the practice of giving citizenship to children born of illegal immigrants by a 63-23 margin, and were split 39-39 on the proposal to deport every single illegal immigrant out of the United States.

Republicans are more impacted by a candidate's position on immigration policy in Iowa than Democrats. However, in a race in which Clinton's lead has been in the single digits over both Obama and Edwards for most of the year, her immigration debacle could tip the scales. A September 2007 Los Angeles Times poll found 13 percent of likely Democratic caucus voters would only vote for a candidate who agrees with them on illegal immigration, compared to 34 percent of Republicans.

In a state that could deliver a knockout blow to the Edwards and Obama campaigns, Clinton strategists must be working overtime to insure a similar gaffe by their candidate doesn't derail her lead in the Hawkeye States, now less tham two months before its caucuses.

Previous post: And A 3rd MN Senate Poll: Coleman Still On Top
Next post: Romney Doubles Up Nearest Competitor In Latest Zogby Iowa Poll

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting