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Latest IA Poll: Dem. Caucus Heats Up; Romney in Sight For Huckabee

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The first CBS News/New York Times poll of the presidential race in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama in a statistical tie. In the new poll, Clinton's support is measured at 25 percent, followed by Edwards at 23 percent, Obama at 22 percent, Bill Richardson at 12 percent, Joe Biden at 4 percent, and Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd both at 1 percent. Eleven percent of the 793 likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided.

In most public polls released prior to November 2007 either Obama and Edwards were within single-digits of the New York Senator, but not both challengers. Last week's Zogby poll and the new CBS/NYT poll find both Obama and Edwards closing the gap on Clinton.

Pundits have noted Senator Clinton has had her first 'bad week' of the '08 campaign —her campaign admitted to planting a question at a campaign stop in Iowa, days after getting criticized harshly in the press for her performance during the last Democratic debate.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney leads in the new CBS/NYT poll with 27 percent, followed by Mike Huckabee at 21 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 15 percent, and Fred Thompson at 9 percent. This is the first public poll to give Huckabee more than 20 percent of the Republican vote in any state, aside from his home state of Arkansas, where he was governor.

John McCain received the nod from just 4 percent of the 480 likely Republican caucus voters polled—the second lowest amount of support he has received in the nearly 30 public polls taken in Iowa during the past year. McCain is now tied with Ron Paul, who also received 4 percent, with Paul about to launch a significant advertising campaign in the Hawkeye State. Paul is already polling close to 10 percent in New Hampshire, and recently raised more than $4 million in one day.

Tom Tancredo (3 percent) and Duncan Hunter (2 percent) round out the GOP field, with 10 percent undecided.

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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