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Latest IA Poll: Dem. Caucus Heats Up; Romney in Sight For Huckabee

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The first CBS News/New York Times poll of the presidential race in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama in a statistical tie. In the new poll, Clinton's support is measured at 25 percent, followed by Edwards at 23 percent, Obama at 22 percent, Bill Richardson at 12 percent, Joe Biden at 4 percent, and Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd both at 1 percent. Eleven percent of the 793 likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided.

In most public polls released prior to November 2007 either Obama and Edwards were within single-digits of the New York Senator, but not both challengers. Last week's Zogby poll and the new CBS/NYT poll find both Obama and Edwards closing the gap on Clinton.

Pundits have noted Senator Clinton has had her first 'bad week' of the '08 campaign —her campaign admitted to planting a question at a campaign stop in Iowa, days after getting criticized harshly in the press for her performance during the last Democratic debate.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney leads in the new CBS/NYT poll with 27 percent, followed by Mike Huckabee at 21 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 15 percent, and Fred Thompson at 9 percent. This is the first public poll to give Huckabee more than 20 percent of the Republican vote in any state, aside from his home state of Arkansas, where he was governor.

John McCain received the nod from just 4 percent of the 480 likely Republican caucus voters polled—the second lowest amount of support he has received in the nearly 30 public polls taken in Iowa during the past year. McCain is now tied with Ron Paul, who also received 4 percent, with Paul about to launch a significant advertising campaign in the Hawkeye State. Paul is already polling close to 10 percent in New Hampshire, and recently raised more than $4 million in one day.

Tom Tancredo (3 percent) and Duncan Hunter (2 percent) round out the GOP field, with 10 percent undecided.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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