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Latest IA Poll: Dem. Caucus Heats Up; Romney in Sight For Huckabee

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The first CBS News/New York Times poll of the presidential race in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama in a statistical tie. In the new poll, Clinton's support is measured at 25 percent, followed by Edwards at 23 percent, Obama at 22 percent, Bill Richardson at 12 percent, Joe Biden at 4 percent, and Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd both at 1 percent. Eleven percent of the 793 likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided.

In most public polls released prior to November 2007 either Obama and Edwards were within single-digits of the New York Senator, but not both challengers. Last week's Zogby poll and the new CBS/NYT poll find both Obama and Edwards closing the gap on Clinton.

Pundits have noted Senator Clinton has had her first 'bad week' of the '08 campaign —her campaign admitted to planting a question at a campaign stop in Iowa, days after getting criticized harshly in the press for her performance during the last Democratic debate.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney leads in the new CBS/NYT poll with 27 percent, followed by Mike Huckabee at 21 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 15 percent, and Fred Thompson at 9 percent. This is the first public poll to give Huckabee more than 20 percent of the Republican vote in any state, aside from his home state of Arkansas, where he was governor.

John McCain received the nod from just 4 percent of the 480 likely Republican caucus voters polled—the second lowest amount of support he has received in the nearly 30 public polls taken in Iowa during the past year. McCain is now tied with Ron Paul, who also received 4 percent, with Paul about to launch a significant advertising campaign in the Hawkeye State. Paul is already polling close to 10 percent in New Hampshire, and recently raised more than $4 million in one day.

Tom Tancredo (3 percent) and Duncan Hunter (2 percent) round out the GOP field, with 10 percent undecided.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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