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Obama Leads Clinton In New ABC News/W. Post Iowa Poll

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A new ABC News / Washington Post Iowa poll finds Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton—and the Democratic field—for the first time since July 2007. The poll, conducted November 14-18 of 500 likely Democratic caucus voters, gives Obama a 30 percent to 26 percent advantage over Clinton, with John Edwards coming in third at 22 percent.

Obama had previously lead Clinton only three times in the nearly three-dozen public polls of Iowans released during the past year. The new ABC News poll is just the second survey that puts Obama in the lead outright—the other being the July 2007 ABC News poll, in which Obama lead Clinton and Edwards by 27 to 26 percent (a statistical tie). Obama also lead Clinton in a January 2007 Zogby poll and a December 2006 KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll.

It should be noted The ABC News survey data includes 'leaners' in its findings—those whose support for a candidate is much more tenuous. Using this methodology, ABC News reported only 3 percent of Democratic caucus voters were 'undecided,' whereas the usual poll of likely voters finds more than 10 percent to be unsure. In other words, there is likely to be greater fluidity in these polling results than a normal scientific poll.

Bill Richardson garnered the support of 11 percent of those surveyed, followed by 4 percent for Joe Biden and 1 percent for Chris Dodd.

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Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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