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Obama Leads Clinton In New ABC News/W. Post Iowa Poll

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A new ABC News / Washington Post Iowa poll finds Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton—and the Democratic field—for the first time since July 2007. The poll, conducted November 14-18 of 500 likely Democratic caucus voters, gives Obama a 30 percent to 26 percent advantage over Clinton, with John Edwards coming in third at 22 percent.

Obama had previously lead Clinton only three times in the nearly three-dozen public polls of Iowans released during the past year. The new ABC News poll is just the second survey that puts Obama in the lead outright—the other being the July 2007 ABC News poll, in which Obama lead Clinton and Edwards by 27 to 26 percent (a statistical tie). Obama also lead Clinton in a January 2007 Zogby poll and a December 2006 KCCI-TV / Research 2000 poll.

It should be noted The ABC News survey data includes 'leaners' in its findings—those whose support for a candidate is much more tenuous. Using this methodology, ABC News reported only 3 percent of Democratic caucus voters were 'undecided,' whereas the usual poll of likely voters finds more than 10 percent to be unsure. In other words, there is likely to be greater fluidity in these polling results than a normal scientific poll.

Bill Richardson garnered the support of 11 percent of those surveyed, followed by 4 percent for Joe Biden and 1 percent for Chris Dodd.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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