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Romney Doubles Up Nearest Competitor In Latest Zogby Iowa Poll

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For months Mitt Romney's success in early polling in Iowa was attributed to the former Massachusetts governor sinking lots of money into ads in the state. Now, less than 2 months from the caucuses, Romney's lead is as strong as ever, and his nearest competitor is one of the least funded candidates in the race—Mike Huckabee.

The latest Zogby poll, conducted November 6-7 of 410 likely Republican caucus voters, measures Romney's support at 31 percent, about twice as much as Huckabee's 15 percent. Rudy Giuliani comes in third with 11 percent, continuing a decline in support among Hawkeye state caucus voters: Zogby measured Giuliani's support at 25 percent in March, 18 percent in May, and 14 percent in August.

Rounding out the rest of the Republican field are Fred Thompson at 10 percent, John McCain at 8 percent, Ron Paul at 4 percent, Tom Tancredo at 3 percent, and Duncan Hunter at 1 percent. Sixteen percent were undecided.

Nearly all political pundits still predict Giuliani will be the GOP nominee (save the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, who predicted Romney last month), despite the large leads Romney has opened up in both Iowa and New Hampshire—the first two states in which voting will occur. Romney is also polling ahead of his rivals in the latest South Carolina survey (American Research Group)—another important early primary state.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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