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Romney Doubles Up Nearest Competitor In Latest Zogby Iowa Poll

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For months Mitt Romney's success in early polling in Iowa was attributed to the former Massachusetts governor sinking lots of money into ads in the state. Now, less than 2 months from the caucuses, Romney's lead is as strong as ever, and his nearest competitor is one of the least funded candidates in the race—Mike Huckabee.

The latest Zogby poll, conducted November 6-7 of 410 likely Republican caucus voters, measures Romney's support at 31 percent, about twice as much as Huckabee's 15 percent. Rudy Giuliani comes in third with 11 percent, continuing a decline in support among Hawkeye state caucus voters: Zogby measured Giuliani's support at 25 percent in March, 18 percent in May, and 14 percent in August.

Rounding out the rest of the Republican field are Fred Thompson at 10 percent, John McCain at 8 percent, Ron Paul at 4 percent, Tom Tancredo at 3 percent, and Duncan Hunter at 1 percent. Sixteen percent were undecided.

Nearly all political pundits still predict Giuliani will be the GOP nominee (save the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, who predicted Romney last month), despite the large leads Romney has opened up in both Iowa and New Hampshire—the first two states in which voting will occur. Romney is also polling ahead of his rivals in the latest South Carolina survey (American Research Group)—another important early primary state.

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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