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A Thompson Leads GOP Pack in Wisconsin? (Fred, Not Tommy)

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In one of the few statewide Wisconsin presidential primary polls conducted this year, a new Badger Poll finds a Thompson atop the GOP field. Whether it is a case of false name recognition or whether he has built a surprising base of support in Wisconsin is unclear, but Fred Thompson (not Tommy—the state's former Governor and former 2008 Republican presidential candidate) leads the way with 30 percent of support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Thompson has seen his support nationwide decline by approximately 50 percent since he officially announced his candidacy in early September. For a while, Thompson was also demonstrating strong regional support in southern states like South Carolina and Georgia (where his numbers have also fallen by double digits).

The Badger poll, conducted November 27—December 5, found Rudy Giuliani in second place with 25 percent, followed by John McCain (15 percent), Mike Huckabee (8 percent), Mitt Romney (5 percent), and Ron Paul (4 percent).

Wisconsin holds its primary on February 19th—two weeks after Super Tuesday, so the number of candidates left standing at that time on both the Democratic and Republican sides will likely be just a handful of those hoping to finish strong in the Iowa Caucuses on January 3rd.

On the Democratic side, the Badger Poll numbers generally reflect the nation-wide surveys. Hillary Clinton received the support of 39 percent of democrats and independents leaning democratic, followed by Barack Obama at 26 percent, John Edwards at 15 percent, and Bill Richardson at 4 percent.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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