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AP / Pew Poll: Clinton Leads in IA, NH, and SC

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An Associated Press / Pew Research Center poll of likely voters in three early primary states finds Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by substantial margins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, but by just 5 points in Iowa. John Edwards registered in double digits in each state, but trailed Clinton by large margins in all three.

One note: the poll was conducted from November 7-25, whereas most polls released during the past week (which show Clinton's lead slipping) were conducted over a more recent three or four day period. The methodological strength of polling over 3.5 weeks is that the results are not skewed in light of any particular events that may soon fade from the consciousness of the electorate (this is one of the reasons polls are usually not conducted over just one day).

The danger of the new AP/Pew poll is that its polling period is so long, dating back nearly a month, that it waters down the possibility of genuine voter attitude change that has occurred during the past week toward the Clinton campaign. If, for example, AP/Pew releases new Republican polling numbers later this week, one would thus expect that Mike Huckabee's measured support to be not as strong than it is in the other polls that have flooded the news cycle during the past week.

With that disclaimer, here are the new numbers:

In Iowa:

Clinton = 31%
Obama = 26%
Edwards = 19%
Richardson = 10%
Biden = 2%
Dodd = 1%
Kucinich = 1%
No opinion = 9%

In New Hampshire:

Clinton = 38%
Obama = 19%
Edwards = 15%
Richardson = 10%
Kucinich = 4%
Biden = 2%
Dodd = 1%
No opinion = 10%

In South Carolina:

Clinton = 45%
Obama = 31%
Edwards = 10%
Biden = 2%
Kuninich = 1%
Richardson = 1%
Dodd = 0%
No opinion = 10%

Previous post: Iowa Poll: More Good News For Huckabee and Obama
Next post: Bill O'Reilly Minimizes Huckabee Surge, Downplays Iowa Caucuses…With Errors

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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