Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


AP / Pew Poll: Clinton Leads in IA, NH, and SC

Bookmark and Share

An Associated Press / Pew Research Center poll of likely voters in three early primary states finds Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by substantial margins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, but by just 5 points in Iowa. John Edwards registered in double digits in each state, but trailed Clinton by large margins in all three.

One note: the poll was conducted from November 7-25, whereas most polls released during the past week (which show Clinton's lead slipping) were conducted over a more recent three or four day period. The methodological strength of polling over 3.5 weeks is that the results are not skewed in light of any particular events that may soon fade from the consciousness of the electorate (this is one of the reasons polls are usually not conducted over just one day).

The danger of the new AP/Pew poll is that its polling period is so long, dating back nearly a month, that it waters down the possibility of genuine voter attitude change that has occurred during the past week toward the Clinton campaign. If, for example, AP/Pew releases new Republican polling numbers later this week, one would thus expect that Mike Huckabee's measured support to be not as strong than it is in the other polls that have flooded the news cycle during the past week.

With that disclaimer, here are the new numbers:

In Iowa:

Clinton = 31%
Obama = 26%
Edwards = 19%
Richardson = 10%
Biden = 2%
Dodd = 1%
Kucinich = 1%
No opinion = 9%

In New Hampshire:

Clinton = 38%
Obama = 19%
Edwards = 15%
Richardson = 10%
Kucinich = 4%
Biden = 2%
Dodd = 1%
No opinion = 10%

In South Carolina:

Clinton = 45%
Obama = 31%
Edwards = 10%
Biden = 2%
Kuninich = 1%
Richardson = 1%
Dodd = 0%
No opinion = 10%

Previous post: Iowa Poll: More Good News For Huckabee and Obama
Next post: Bill O'Reilly Minimizes Huckabee Surge, Downplays Iowa Caucuses…With Errors

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected lieutenant governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting