Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


ARG Iowa Poll: Clinton Up 14; 3-Way GOP Race

Bookmark and Share

As further proof of how things can change in Iowa at the drop of a hat, the latest polling by American Research Group (ARG) finds the former 3-way Democratic race now showing a 14-point Hillary Clinton advantage, and the former duel between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney now a 3-way race with John McCain.

The poll, conducted December 20-23 of 600 likely Republican and 600 likely Democratic caucus voters, finds Clinton apparently surging after a very shaky last few months with mediocre debate performances and actions by her campaign leaders that have been routinely criticized by the media.

The 34 percent support received by Clinton in the new survey is the highest mark in the monthly ARG poll since late January 2007 (35 percent). Clinton is followed by John Edwards at 20 percent, Barack Obama at 20 percent, Joe Biden at 8 percent, Bill Richardson at 5 percent, and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich at 2 percent each. Ten percent of likely Democratic caucus participants remain undecided.

On the Republican side, the few weeks of attacks against Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee are apparently beginning to take their toll. Huckabee's support, at 23 percent, is at its lowest in the last 4 ARG polls. Romney, at 21 percent, polls within the margin of error, followed by McCain at 17 percent. McCain had been written off in Iowa a month ago—polling at just 9 percent in the late November ARG survey (and as low as 5 percent in other surveys of Iowans conducted during the past 4 weeks).

McCain is followed by Rudy Giuliani (14 percent), and Ron Paul, who, at 10 percent, is at his personal high-water mark in Iowa polling to date. Fred Thompson (3 percent), Duncan Hunter (2 percent), and Alan Keyes (2 percent) round out the GOP field with 8 percent still undecided—the lowest number of undecided Republican caucus voters in 15 ARG polls conducted during the past year.

Previous post: Ron Paul Meets the Press
Next post: The Bhutto Assassination, Foreign Policy and the '08 Campaign

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting