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Iowa Democratic Caucus Time Capsule: 2004

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With Barack Obama tied or in the lead outright in three of the last four public polls in Iowa, the political beat is buzzing how Hillary Clinton, who had led in every Hawkeye State poll from late August to late November, has lost her momentum to the junior Senator from Illinois.

With just two weeks until the caucuses on January 3rd, Smart Politics takes a look back at the Democratic caucus polling conducted two weeks prior to the January 19th caucuses back in 2004.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted January 5-7, 2004 still showed Howard Dean in the lead—with a 29-22 lead over Richard Gephardt. John Kerry was in 3rd (21 percent), followed by John Edwards (17 percent).

Gephardt and Dean, the two leading candidates in Iowa throughout 2003, both went on the attack in the waning weeks before Caucus Day. The end result was a belated holiday gift to Kerry and Edwards, who went on to finish 1-2 in the caucuses.

In the 2008 campaign, Obama and Clinton haven't quite gone negative yet—although Clinton's high-profile surrogates (including her husband Bill) seem to be dropping the seeds of attacks to come (e.g. suggesting Obama is a coin-flip, and is not quite ready for primetime).

There is no doubt Edwards is salivating over a potential all-out war between the two frontrunners. This might be Edwards' best (and last) shot to pull out an 11th hour victory to save his campaign.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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