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Iowa Poll: More Good News For Huckabee and Obama

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The latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll finds Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama atop the fields of their respective parties, continuing the momentum for each candidate chronicled in other public polls released during the past week.

The poll, conducted November 25-28 of 500 likely Democratic and 500 likely Republican caucus voters, finds Obama (28 percent), Hillary Clinton (25 percent), and John Edwards (23 percent) once again bunched within 5 points of one another. This continues the trend found by other surveys released during the past week of a close three-way race for the Democratic nod in Iowa. The latest American Research Group (ARG) poll found a 4-point spread among the three candidates with Obama on top, while the latest Rasmussen poll found a 3-point spread with Clinton on top.

Bill Richardson registered 9 percent in the new poll, followed by Joe Biden at 6 percent, and Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd at 1 percent each.

Although only 7 percent of respondents were undecided, it should be noted the Des Moines Register poll includes 'leaners' in its findings—those who do not initially express a particular candidate preference. Of those polled who ultimately stated a preference (some after a follow-up question prompt), more than half of the likely Democratic caucus voters stated they could change their mind by January 3rd.

On the Republican side Mike Huckabee makes his case as the new 'comeback kid' from Arkansas—leading the field with 29 percent in the new poll. Huckabee also led in last week's Rasmussen poll and trailed Romney by a statistically insignificant 1 point in last week's ARG survey.

In the Des Moines Register poll, Mitt Romney now trails by 5 points at 24 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 13 percent, Fred Thompson at 9 percent, and John McCain and Ron Paul tied at 7 percent. Tom Tancredo, who has led the anti-illegal immigration charge that has taken on such an important role in the primary debates, came in seventh at 6 percent—the highest level of support he has received in any public poll of Iowans to date. Duncan Hunter received 1 percent with 4 percent undecided. Nearly 60 percent of Republican caucus voters stated they could be convinced to switch allegiances prior to Caucus Day.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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