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Iowa Poll: More Good News For Huckabee and Obama

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The latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll finds Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama atop the fields of their respective parties, continuing the momentum for each candidate chronicled in other public polls released during the past week.

The poll, conducted November 25-28 of 500 likely Democratic and 500 likely Republican caucus voters, finds Obama (28 percent), Hillary Clinton (25 percent), and John Edwards (23 percent) once again bunched within 5 points of one another. This continues the trend found by other surveys released during the past week of a close three-way race for the Democratic nod in Iowa. The latest American Research Group (ARG) poll found a 4-point spread among the three candidates with Obama on top, while the latest Rasmussen poll found a 3-point spread with Clinton on top.

Bill Richardson registered 9 percent in the new poll, followed by Joe Biden at 6 percent, and Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd at 1 percent each.

Although only 7 percent of respondents were undecided, it should be noted the Des Moines Register poll includes 'leaners' in its findings—those who do not initially express a particular candidate preference. Of those polled who ultimately stated a preference (some after a follow-up question prompt), more than half of the likely Democratic caucus voters stated they could change their mind by January 3rd.

On the Republican side Mike Huckabee makes his case as the new 'comeback kid' from Arkansas—leading the field with 29 percent in the new poll. Huckabee also led in last week's Rasmussen poll and trailed Romney by a statistically insignificant 1 point in last week's ARG survey.

In the Des Moines Register poll, Mitt Romney now trails by 5 points at 24 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 13 percent, Fred Thompson at 9 percent, and John McCain and Ron Paul tied at 7 percent. Tom Tancredo, who has led the anti-illegal immigration charge that has taken on such an important role in the primary debates, came in seventh at 6 percent—the highest level of support he has received in any public poll of Iowans to date. Duncan Hunter received 1 percent with 4 percent undecided. Nearly 60 percent of Republican caucus voters stated they could be convinced to switch allegiances prior to Caucus Day.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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