Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


McClatchy/MSNBC Poll: Huckabee Up Double Digits In Iowa

Bookmark and Share

The story in Iowa during the past week to ten days was how Mike Huckabee had surpassed Mitt Romney in some Republican caucus polls in Iowa. The story this week is that this lead has now extended to double digits. A new McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted by Mason-Dixon stakes Huckabee to a 12-point lead over Romney, 32 to 20 percent, in a survey of 400 likely voters.

Huckabee had previously led Romney by single digits in the latest Des Moines Register and Rasmussen polls, while Romney had a statistically insignificant 1-point lead over Huckabee in the latest American Research Group and Zogby surveys. A new Newsweek poll released this weekend found Huckabee ahead by a staggering 22 points; that poll, however, included 'leaners,' and was conducted of a sample of just 275 likely Republican voters (with a very large margin of error of plus or minus 7 points).

In the new McClatchy/MSNBC poll Fred Thompson drew 11 percent support, followed by John McCain at 7 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 5 percent, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul at 2 percent, and Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes at 1 percent. Nineteen percent were still undecided. Due to the extremely competitive and volatile GOP field, most state polls have found a much larger number of undecided Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Giuliani's fall in the Hawkeye state to 5 percent in this new poll is noteworthy: the former frontrunner in the Hawkeye State was polling as high as 21 percent in late September, but now appears to be conceding the state in what campaign insiders have now admitted to be a 'flawed strategy' of looking ahead to Florida and the Super Tuesday February 5th contests.

The McClatchy/MSNBC poll found less movement on the Democratic side—it's still a three-way race: Hillary Clinton (27 percent), Barack Obama (25 percent), and John Edwards (21 percent) lead the way followed by Bill Richardson (9 percent), Joe Biden (5 percent), Chris Dodd (1 percent) and Dennis Kucinich (1 percent). Just 11 percent of likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided. The poll was conducted with an end date of Thursday, December 6th—two days before Oprah Winfrey endorsed Obama in Des Moines.

Previous post: Romney, The Speech, and Social Conservatism
Next post: Wisconsinites Overwhelmingly Back Tough Measures Against Illegal Immigrants

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting