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McClatchy/MSNBC Poll: Huckabee Up Double Digits In Iowa

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The story in Iowa during the past week to ten days was how Mike Huckabee had surpassed Mitt Romney in some Republican caucus polls in Iowa. The story this week is that this lead has now extended to double digits. A new McClatchy/MSNBC poll conducted by Mason-Dixon stakes Huckabee to a 12-point lead over Romney, 32 to 20 percent, in a survey of 400 likely voters.

Huckabee had previously led Romney by single digits in the latest Des Moines Register and Rasmussen polls, while Romney had a statistically insignificant 1-point lead over Huckabee in the latest American Research Group and Zogby surveys. A new Newsweek poll released this weekend found Huckabee ahead by a staggering 22 points; that poll, however, included 'leaners,' and was conducted of a sample of just 275 likely Republican voters (with a very large margin of error of plus or minus 7 points).

In the new McClatchy/MSNBC poll Fred Thompson drew 11 percent support, followed by John McCain at 7 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 5 percent, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul at 2 percent, and Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes at 1 percent. Nineteen percent were still undecided. Due to the extremely competitive and volatile GOP field, most state polls have found a much larger number of undecided Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Giuliani's fall in the Hawkeye state to 5 percent in this new poll is noteworthy: the former frontrunner in the Hawkeye State was polling as high as 21 percent in late September, but now appears to be conceding the state in what campaign insiders have now admitted to be a 'flawed strategy' of looking ahead to Florida and the Super Tuesday February 5th contests.

The McClatchy/MSNBC poll found less movement on the Democratic side—it's still a three-way race: Hillary Clinton (27 percent), Barack Obama (25 percent), and John Edwards (21 percent) lead the way followed by Bill Richardson (9 percent), Joe Biden (5 percent), Chris Dodd (1 percent) and Dennis Kucinich (1 percent). Just 11 percent of likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided. The poll was conducted with an end date of Thursday, December 6th—two days before Oprah Winfrey endorsed Obama in Des Moines.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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