Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


The Polls Tell Us…It's A Toss-Up in Iowa

Bookmark and Share

With at least one poll of Iowans being released every day, the results tell us that while no candidate is the definitive frontrunner, certain patterns have emerged.

With different candidates leading in different polls, both the Democratic and GOP races are classic 'toss-ups.' In polls released during the past week, Hillary Clinton led by 4 points in Zogby's survey and by 7 points in American Research Group's poll. John Edwards polled on top by a statistically insignificant 1-point in MSNBC/McClatchy's survey and Barack Obama was tied with Edwards in the KCCI-TV / Research 2000 survey.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee polled on top in the latest Zogby and KCCI-TV surveys (by 2 and 7 points respectively) while Mitt Romney led in polls by American Research Group and MSNBC / McClatchy (by 9 and 4 points).

No one can call themselves a frontrunner in Iowa not only because different polls tell us there are different leaders, but because each polling organization has to make subjective decisions as to whom is a 'likely caucus voter.' Turnout at such caucuses is very hard to predict, and a tighter screen is needed than that used for 'regular' likely voters.

Secondly, the Huckabee surge has stopped—though his base support might be strong enough to carry him through on Thursday night. Romney, and to some extent John McCain, appear to have picked off some of Huckabee's softer supporters in recent weeks. Romney's support, however, has been more fragile than most other top candidates throughout Iowa and the early primary states, so there is no guarantee his 25+ percent of base support will stick with him throughout the caucuses.

Thirdly, the race for third place on the GOP side appears to be between McCain and Fred Thompson, with Rudy Giuliani polling in the single digits alongside Ron Paul for fifth in most recent polls. A sixth place showing for Giuliani behind the well-funded Paul would be no less than a nightmare for the former New York City mayor, even though Giuliani has not been spending as much time in the Hawkeye State as most other GOP candidates (McCain, for example, has not devoted much campaign resources to Iowa, and yet leads Giuliani by at least 5 points in most surveys).

Previous post: Five Days Out: Romney Back On Top in New Iowa Poll
Next post: Clinton On Top In 2 of 3 Iowa Polls Released Today

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting