January 2008
By Eric Ostermeier on January 31, 2008
A Minnesota Public Radio / Humphrey Institute survey of 917 Minnesotans conducted January 20-27 finds Hillary Clinton and John McCain with an edge in the presidential nomination race in the Gopher State (view the report). The pollsters note the survey was not conducted among likely caucus voters, so expect some...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 30, 2008
Sources within the John Edwards campaign have revealed that the former Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee and North Carolina Senator will exit the race for the Democratic nomination today. The timing of the move was somewhat surprising, even though Edwards had not performed above expectations since his narrow second place finish in...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 29, 2008
Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Florida primary results tonight. The following updated percentages are based on raw vote numbers provided by reporting precincts, not a scientific random sample. 6:15 p.m. As is customary in recent years, the media is releasing selected exit poll data prior...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 28, 2008
Smart Politics will blog live Tuesday night as the Florida primary results come in. The focus will be on the Republican primary, as no delegates will be awarded on the Democratic side. In addition to real-time reporting of results and media watchdog commentary, Smart Politics will examine the impact of...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 27, 2008
While it is possible Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani will all remain in the GOP race regardless of the outcome in Florida on Tuesday (Giuliani has at least stated he won't exit the race), each of these campaigns would benefit greatly from an "Anybody But McCain" victory. The...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 26, 2008
Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Democratic primary results tonight in South Carolina. The following updated percentages are based on raw vote numbers provided by reporting precincts, not a scientific random sample. 6:00 p.m. CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News all have declared Barack Obama the winner...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 26, 2008
Smart Politics will blog live tonight as the South Carolina Democratic primary results come in. In addition to the real-time reporting of results and media watchdog commentary Smart Politics normally provides, there are several key questions to be explored: 1) How did the vote break down along racial and gender...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 24, 2008
Political pundits have largely explained Rudy Giuliani's decline over the past few months as a direct result of two factors: a) his failed campaign strategy that abandoned the early primary states and b) John McCain's surge—the latter being a logical supposition considering both candidates are considered to vie for the...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 23, 2008
A brand new poll of registered Minnesota voters by SurveyUSA finds John McCain is the only Republican candidate who could beat Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, if the presidential election were held today. Smart Politics has discussed McCain's viability against the Democrats across key battleground states throughout the past year,...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 22, 2008
12:00 p.m. Today's forum at the Humphrey Institute, sponsored by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, focuses on the state of the Minnesota Republican Party and conservatism. The event is moderated by Dr. Larry Jacobs, Director of the Center, and includes the following panelists: Steve Sviggum, Commissioner,...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 22, 2008
Smart Politics will be blogging live today at the Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs from 12:00 to 1:30 p.m. at a program on the state of the Republican Party in Minnesota and conservative movement. From the Humphrey press release: The State of Minnesota's Republican Party and Conservative Movement Tuesday, January...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 21, 2008
Because Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign has taken the (now much criticized tactic) of focusing most of its energy and resources on winning the state of Florida, he has fallen so much out of the national spotlight in recent weeks that his lead has evaporated in not only national polls,...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 19, 2008
Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Republican primary results tonight in South Carolina. The following updated percentages are based on raw vote numbers provided by reporting precincts, not a scientific random sample. 6:02 p.m. Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC are projecting a too-close-to-call race between John...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 19, 2008
As expected, Mitt Romney rolled to a big win in Saturday's GOP Nevada caucus, notching his second win out of two contests in the West and third out of five (pending tonight's South Carolina results). With 98 percent reporting, Romney is set to win the majority of the vote: Romney...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 18, 2008
After the two Republican contests on Saturday, a caucus in Nevada and a primary in South Carolina, will one GOP presidential hopeful emerge with more momentum to help separate him from the pack? 'Momentum' on one level, seems to be an inaccurate term when describing the effect of previous caucuses...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 16, 2008
Minnesota is home to a particularly lively political blogging community and Minnesota Democrats Exposed (MDE) is perhaps the most influential conservative political blog in the Gopher State. MDE, authored by Michael Brodkorb, is known for both breaking political news and a worldview that unflinchingly shines a light on the...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 15, 2008
Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Republican primary results tonight in Michigan. These percentages are based on raw vote numbers provided by reported precincts, not a scientific random sample. 7:10 p.m. Early indications are from exit polls that Republican turnout in this open primary is much...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 15, 2008
Smart Politics will be blogging live tonight at 7 p.m. CST when most of the polls close in Michigan. Smart Politics will report up-to-the minute election returns as well as provide analysis of not only the results but also the media coverage and pundit spin regarding what the results mean...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 14, 2008
After John McCain's 5-point victory over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, pundits and the broadcast media immediately characterized Michigan as a "do or die" state for Romney. A Romney loss to McCain (at the time the predicted winner of Michigan), it was argued, would have three negative effects. First, McCain...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 11, 2008
10:05 a.m. Several prominent former Minnesota officeholders will testify this morning on redistricting before the Senate's Committee on State and Local Government Operations and Oversight. Redistricting will be a big issue in Minnesota - especially in light of the fact that the Gopher State may lose 1 seat in the...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 11, 2008
Several prominent former Minnesota officeholders will testify on redistricting before the Senate's Committee on State and Local Government Operations and Oversight at 10 a.m. Friday morning at the Capitol. Testifying before the committee to discuss the creation of a bipartisan redistricting commission are former Governor Arne Carlson, former Vice President...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 10, 2008
In addition to the media, pollsters have been on the defensive during the last two days trying to offer explanations for missing out in a big way on Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday night. One such pollster, American Research Group (ARG), has offered an interesting spin on...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 9, 2008
The Associated Press is reporting that Democratic New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will drop out of the presidential race. Richardson has consistently placed fourth in national and most state polls throughout the past year. Richardson received 5 percent of the vote in New Hampshire last night....
By Eric Ostermeier on January 9, 2008
The media had to throw out their script Tuesday night as the Democratic election returns came in during the New Hampshire primary. The print media who wrote Hillary Clinton's obituary that morning and the broadcast media who spent the hours preceding the election results asking, "What happened to Hillary?" have...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 8, 2008
Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official New Hampshire primary results tonight. These are raw vote numbers provided by reported precincts, not a scientific random sample: 7:02 p.m. Democrats (11 percent reporting) Clinton = 38% Obama = 36% Edwards = 17% Richardson = 4% Kucinich = 2%...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 8, 2008
Smart Politics will be blogging live tonight at 7 p.m. CST when the polls close in New Hampshire. Smart Politics will report up-to-the minute election returns as well as provide analysis of not only the results but also the media coverage of today's political festivities....
By Eric Ostermeier on January 7, 2008
In the first poll of Iowans since its caucuses last Thursday, Democrat Barack Obama would trounce Republican Mike Huckabee if the presidential election were held today. The SurveyUSA poll of 543 registered voters, conducted January 4-6, found Obama would defeat Huckabee by 23 points (58 to 35 percent) in a...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 7, 2008
Twenty-three polls of New Hampshire voters by 10 polling organizations have been released since the Iowa caucuses last Thursday evening (including eight this morning). What can we glean from these surveys? While Barack Obama has noticed a significant bounce from his Iowa victory that appears to have him poised to...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 5, 2008
Mitt Romney has won the Wyoming Republican Caucus. The final vote tally for the 12 delegates decided today: Mitt Romney = 8 delegates Fred Thompson = 3 delegates Duncan Hunter = 1 delegate Romney also won the most alternate delegates with 5, followed by Thompson with 2, and Hunter and...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 5, 2008
Mitt Romney seems poised to win the Wyoming Caucus in a state that will bring 14 total delegates to the Republican convention. Twelve of these delegates will be decided today, and Romney has won 5 of 7 so far, with Duncan Hunter winning 1 and Fred Thompson winning 1. The...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 4, 2008
With five Republican candidates polling at 10 or more percent in the Iowa caucuses (Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Ron Paul), as well as in national polls (substituting Rudy Giuliani for Ron Paul), the GOP race certainly appears to be the horserace to end all horseraces....
By Eric Ostermeier on January 4, 2008
Update: MSNBC's report late Thursday night that Mike Gravel had exited the race was not true. According to Gravel's official campaign website: MSNBC pundit Keith Olbermann has incorrectly declared that Sen. Gravel has dropped out of the race following the January third caucus in Iowa. This is not true, and...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2008
All 1,781 precincts have now reported their Democratic caucus results: 1. Senator Barack Obama (940 votes) : 37.58% 2. Senator John Edwards (744 votes) : 29.75% 3. Senator Hillary Clinton (737 votes) : 29.47% 4. Governor Bill Richardson (53 votes) : 2.11% 5. Senator Joe Biden (23 votes) : 0.93%...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2008
The Democratic field is now down to five. According to MSNBC, Mike Gravel - who was polling in last place across the board among the original eight Democratic candidates - announced he has exited the presidential race, joining Chris Dodd and Joe Biden from earlier this evening. No Republican has...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2008
Democratic Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden each ended their bids for the Democratic presidential nomination tonight, after poor showings in the Iowa caucuses. Neither candidate was polling in double digits nationally, nor in double digits outside of their home states. Therefore the greatest impact their abence will have on...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2008
Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Iowa Caucus results tonight. These are raw vote numbers provided by reported precincts, not a scientific random sample: 7:41 p.m. (17% of precincts reporting) Democrats: Edwards 34.0%, Clinton 31.9%, Obama 31.3% 7:45 p.m. (21% of precincts reporting) Democrats: Edwards 33.4%,...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 3, 2008
Two final polls of Iowans were released today—with mixed results on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee the consensus leader for the GOP. For the Democrats, Zogby's tracking poll conducted December 30 through January 2 finds Barack Obama leading with 31 percent, John Edwards in second at 27 percent, and...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 2, 2008
Despite leading in just 1 of the last 41 public polls conducted of likely Democratic caucus attendees in Iowa since late August 2007, there is reason for John Edwards to be optimistic about his chances of winning the caucuses Thursday night. First, Edwards' deficit in most of the recent polls...
By Eric Ostermeier on January 1, 2008
Is the 'Clinton machine' at last paying dividends in Iowa? The answer to that question is still unknown according to three new polls of Iowans released today. Clinton's strongest support in Iowa to date has come from the Democratic base, with independents breaking to Barack Obama and John Edwards. Democrats...
