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Live Blogging: The Iowa Caucuses

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Smart Politics will continue to monitor and update the official Iowa Caucus results tonight. These are raw vote numbers provided by reported precincts, not a scientific random sample:

7:41 p.m. (17% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Edwards 34.0%, Clinton 31.9%, Obama 31.3%

7:45 p.m. (21% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Edwards 33.4%, Clinton 32.2%, Obama 31.6%

7:52 p.m. (28% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Edwards 32.5%, Obama 32.4, Clinton 32.2%

7:53 p.m. FOX News has just projected Mike Huckabee is the winner of the Republican caucses.

7:55 p.m. Mitt Romney, interviewed by FOX News' Chris Wallace congratulated Mike Huckabee on his performance today. Romney says he is happy if he gets the gold or silver medal today.

8:00 p.m. NBC News has just called the GOP race for Huckabee.

8:02 p.m. (39% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Obama 33.3, Edwards 32.1%, Clinton 31.7%

8:05 p.m. (44% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Obama 33.5, Edwards 32.0%, Clinton 31.7%

8:10 p.m. (50% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Obama 33.9, Edwards 31.8%, Clinton 31.6%

8:15 p.m. (55% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Obama 34.4, Edwards 31.6%, Clinton 31.2%

8:21 p.m. (66% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Obama 35.0, Edwards 31.2%, Clinton 31.0%

8:27 p.m. (72% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Obama 35.2, Edwards 31.1%, Clinton 30.8%

8:28 p.m. FOX News has just projected Barack Obama to win the Democratic caucuses.

8:29 p.m. NBC News has also now projected Obama the winner.

8:37 p.m. (83% of precincts reporting)
Democrats: Obama 36.6, Edwards 30.3%, Clinton 30.1%

8:42 p.m. (65% of precincts reporting)
Republicans: Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 14%, McCain 13%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 4%, Hunter 0%

8:45 p.m. No less than 3 commentators on MSNBC and Fox News tonight, including the esteemed Tom Brokaw, have compared Mike Huckabee's win tonight with "Pat Robertson's victory" in 1988. Reminder: Pat Robertson did NOT win Iowa in 1988. He came in second, but exceeded expectations by beating George H. W. Bush. "Expectations," it has been said, are what will drive headlines on tonight's events -- and perhaps they can also rewrite history.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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