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McCain Only GOP-er to Defeat Dems in Minnesota

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A brand new poll of registered Minnesota voters by SurveyUSA finds John McCain is the only Republican candidate who could beat Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, if the presidential election were held today.

Smart Politics has discussed McCain's viability against the Democrats across key battleground states throughout the past year, most recently in mid-December, when the Arizona Senator was still polling behind Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney (and sometimes Fred Thompson) in all national surveys. John Edwards has consistently been the most viable Democratic candidate against McCain, but his longshot odds to win the Democratic primary has prompted most pollsters to leave him off their matchup poll questions.

In Minnesota, McCain leads Hillary Clinton 49 to 45 percent and Barack Obama 49 to 42 percent in a survey of 550 registered voters (MoE +/- 4.3).

According to SurveyUSA Clinton and Obama would each easily defeat the other three primary Republican contenders if the election were held today:

Clinton 51—Giuliani 40
Clinton 51—Romney 40
Clinton 50—Huckabee 42

Obama 52—Giuliani 36
Obama 55—Romney 36
Obama 49—Huckabee 42

Previous post: Live Blog: State of the GOP and Conservatism in Minnesota
Next post: Smart Politics Study: Giuliani Descent Linked Equally to Huckabee, Romney, and McCain

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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