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McCain Only GOP-er to Defeat Dems in Minnesota

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A brand new poll of registered Minnesota voters by SurveyUSA finds John McCain is the only Republican candidate who could beat Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, if the presidential election were held today.

Smart Politics has discussed McCain's viability against the Democrats across key battleground states throughout the past year, most recently in mid-December, when the Arizona Senator was still polling behind Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney (and sometimes Fred Thompson) in all national surveys. John Edwards has consistently been the most viable Democratic candidate against McCain, but his longshot odds to win the Democratic primary has prompted most pollsters to leave him off their matchup poll questions.

In Minnesota, McCain leads Hillary Clinton 49 to 45 percent and Barack Obama 49 to 42 percent in a survey of 550 registered voters (MoE +/- 4.3).

According to SurveyUSA Clinton and Obama would each easily defeat the other three primary Republican contenders if the election were held today:

Clinton 51—Giuliani 40
Clinton 51—Romney 40
Clinton 50—Huckabee 42

Obama 52—Giuliani 36
Obama 55—Romney 36
Obama 49—Huckabee 42

Previous post: Live Blog: State of the GOP and Conservatism in Minnesota
Next post: Smart Politics Study: Giuliani Descent Linked Equally to Huckabee, Romney, and McCain

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected lieutenant governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


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