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New Hampshire Poll Roundup

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Twenty-three polls of New Hampshire voters by 10 polling organizations have been released since the Iowa caucuses last Thursday evening (including eight this morning). What can we glean from these surveys?

While Barack Obama has noticed a significant bounce from his Iowa victory that appears to have him poised to win the Granite State for its first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday, Mike Huckabee has not been able to translate his success in the Hawkeye State to the northeast, and will be fighting for third place (with Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul).

Obama is on top in each of the last 11 polls released, whereas Hillary Clinton had led in 69 of the previous 76 New Hampshire polls dating back to late January 2007. Obama's lead ranges from a low of a statistically insignificant 1 point (Suffolk/WHDH) to double digits leads in surveys released by CNN, Rasmussen, USA Today/Gallup, Zogby, and American Research Group. Clinton last polled on top (by just a few points) in surveys conducted through Saturday. The importance of the polls released today is that the entire survey field dates occurred after Iowa's caucuses on January 3rd.

On the Republican side, Huckabee has seen an uptick in support of no more than a few points in New Hampshire—he was polling at around 9 to 12 percent before the Iowa caucuses and, in the eight polls released today, is still polling at just 9 to 14 percent (averaging 11.5 percent).

John McCain, as projected by most pundits, has turned Mitt Romney's 2nd place 'loss' in Iowa to his advantage in New Hampshire. McCain leads in 9 of the 10 polls released today, by between 1 and 9 points. Romney leads by 3 points in the Suffolk/WHDH survey.

But Obama's buzz seems to be much greater than McCain's, and the fear in the McCain camp is that more and more independents will decide at the last hour to vote in the Democratic primary (for Obama) than in the Republican primary (for McCain). McCain holds a significant advantage—more than 2:1 in several polls—over Romney among independents, or undeclared voters, while Romney is the clear winner among Republicans. There appears, at this point, to be more impetus in the Granite state among non-Democrats to see Clinton lose (and Obama win) than there is to see McCain beat Romney. Romney is still very popular in New Hampshire, as evidenced by his high favorability rating, and is not seeing the slippage that Clinton is experiencing these last few days.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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