Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


New MPR / HHH Poll Finds Clinton, McCain with Edge in Minnesota

Bookmark and Share

A Minnesota Public Radio / Humphrey Institute survey of 917 Minnesotans conducted January 20-27 finds Hillary Clinton and John McCain with an edge in the presidential nomination race in the Gopher State (view the report). The pollsters note the survey was not conducted among likely caucus voters, so expect some fluidity in the race, especially in light of the recent departures by Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards.

On the Democratic side, Clinton led Obama 40 to 33 percent, with 12 percent for Edwards and 13 percent undecided. Clinton led Obama by a whopping 56 to 17 percent margin three months ago in a SurveyUSA poll, so Obama seems to have made great inroads in Minnesota and is definitely in play here.

On the Republican side, McCain led Mike Huckabee 41 to 22 percent, with 17 percent for Mitt Romney, 6 percent for Giuliani, 5 percent for Ron Paul, and 10 percent undecided. Several GOP candidates have already been running media spots in Minnesota—including Huckabee and Paul. Three months ago SurveyUSA found Giuliani with nearly half of the support of Republican registered voters in the state (47 percent) with no other candidate above 20 percent.

The survey also found Clinton and Obama handily leading McCain, Huckabee, and Romney in all head-to-head matchups.

Clinton led McCain 48 to 38 percent, Huckabee 55 to 31 percent, and Romney 55 to 32 percent. Clinton has led Romney in all 12 previous matchup polls by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen as well as all 4 previous matchup contests against Huckabee measured by SurveyUSA. Past poll results have found the New York and Arizona Senators locked in closer battles in the Gopher State, with McCain leading Clinton by 4 points in a SurveyUSA poll conducted 10 days ago.

Obama led McCain by a slightly larger margin (50 to 37 percent) and doubled-up on Huckabee (58 to 28 percent) and Romney (56 to 28 percent). Obama has led Romney and Huckabee in all previous public polling matchups. SurveyUSA, however, has previously measured McCain ahead of Obama in Minnesota, in November (46 to 43 percent), December (50 to 41 percent), and mid-January (49 to 42 percent).

The caucuses will be held in Minnesota on Super Tuesday, February 5th.

Previous post: Smart Politics Study: Edwards Exit Should Boost Obama in California
Next post: MPR / HHH MN Senate Poll: Franken & Coleman in Dead Heat

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting