Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


New MPR / HHH Poll Finds Clinton, McCain with Edge in Minnesota

Bookmark and Share

A Minnesota Public Radio / Humphrey Institute survey of 917 Minnesotans conducted January 20-27 finds Hillary Clinton and John McCain with an edge in the presidential nomination race in the Gopher State (view the report). The pollsters note the survey was not conducted among likely caucus voters, so expect some fluidity in the race, especially in light of the recent departures by Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards.

On the Democratic side, Clinton led Obama 40 to 33 percent, with 12 percent for Edwards and 13 percent undecided. Clinton led Obama by a whopping 56 to 17 percent margin three months ago in a SurveyUSA poll, so Obama seems to have made great inroads in Minnesota and is definitely in play here.

On the Republican side, McCain led Mike Huckabee 41 to 22 percent, with 17 percent for Mitt Romney, 6 percent for Giuliani, 5 percent for Ron Paul, and 10 percent undecided. Several GOP candidates have already been running media spots in Minnesota—including Huckabee and Paul. Three months ago SurveyUSA found Giuliani with nearly half of the support of Republican registered voters in the state (47 percent) with no other candidate above 20 percent.

The survey also found Clinton and Obama handily leading McCain, Huckabee, and Romney in all head-to-head matchups.

Clinton led McCain 48 to 38 percent, Huckabee 55 to 31 percent, and Romney 55 to 32 percent. Clinton has led Romney in all 12 previous matchup polls by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen as well as all 4 previous matchup contests against Huckabee measured by SurveyUSA. Past poll results have found the New York and Arizona Senators locked in closer battles in the Gopher State, with McCain leading Clinton by 4 points in a SurveyUSA poll conducted 10 days ago.

Obama led McCain by a slightly larger margin (50 to 37 percent) and doubled-up on Huckabee (58 to 28 percent) and Romney (56 to 28 percent). Obama has led Romney and Huckabee in all previous public polling matchups. SurveyUSA, however, has previously measured McCain ahead of Obama in Minnesota, in November (46 to 43 percent), December (50 to 41 percent), and mid-January (49 to 42 percent).

The caucuses will be held in Minnesota on Super Tuesday, February 5th.

Previous post: Smart Politics Study: Edwards Exit Should Boost Obama in California
Next post: MPR / HHH MN Senate Poll: Franken & Coleman in Dead Heat

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting