Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


One Pollster's Explanation for the Clinton-Obama Miss in NH

Bookmark and Share

In addition to the media, pollsters have been on the defensive during the last two days trying to offer explanations for missing out in a big way on Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday night. One such pollster, American Research Group (ARG), has offered an interesting spin on their polling results.

ARG released 18 surveys on the New Hampshire race dating back to December 2006, including 5 polls in the last week and a half before the primary. In its latest poll, conducted January 6-7 (the end date being the day before voting), ARG measured Barack Obama's support at 40 percent, Clinton at 31 percent, and Edwards at 20 percent.

ARG boasted:

"While we missed the final number that Clinton would make in New Hampshire, our polling was one of only two daily polls that showed Clinton regaining support following her drop in New Hampshire the day after the Iowa Democratic caucus. Clinton was moving up in the final days and hours before the primary, and our polls and the Rasmussen polls were the only daily polls to catch Clinton's rebound."

What ARG does not mention is that only 4 pollsters conducted surveys through January 7th and neither Rasmussen nor ARG had Clinton polling as high as another poll - Suffolk University (who found Clinton's support at 34 percent). In fact, of these 4 pollsters, ARG showed Clinton with the second largest deficit (9 points). Suffolk showed a 6-point deficit, Rasmussen showed a 7-point deficit, and Zogby showed a 13-point deficit.

ARG's claim that their data found Clinton regaining support is true: in their last three polls she gained from 26 to 28 to 31 percent. But ARG fails to mention that Obama was also gaining support in those same three polls: from 38 to 39 to 40 percent.

ARG's final word on the matter is perhaps the most striking:

"We did not have a polling problem, we just ran out of time."

Now that is the kind of spin some of the candidates could use in their campaigns.

Previous post: Bill Richardson To Drop Out of Presidential Race?
Next post: CSPG's Minnesota Redistricting Project to Testify Before Senate Today

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

Mary Burke: English First?

While multiculturalism and bilingualism are increasingly en vogue in some quarters as the world seemingly becomes a smaller place, one very high profile 2014 Democratic candidate does not shy away from the fact that she only speaks one language: English. In an attempt to highlight her private sector credentials working for Trek Bicycle, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke boasts on her campaign bio page how she made great strides in international business dealings...while only speaking English: "Despite not speaking a single foreign language, she established sales and distribution operations in seven countries over just three years." Note: According to 2010 Census data, nearly half a million Wisconsinites over five years old speak a language other than English at home, or 8.7 percent, while 4.6 percent of Badger State residents do not speak English at all.


Does My Key Still Work?

Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting