Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Study: Edwards Exit Should Boost Obama in California

Bookmark and Share

Sources within the John Edwards campaign have revealed that the former Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee and North Carolina Senator will exit the race for the Democratic nomination today. The timing of the move was somewhat surprising, even though Edwards had not performed above expectations since his narrow second place finish in Iowa on January 3rd.

The question now is what will happen to Edwards' support? (Support that ranges from approximately one-tenth to one-fifth of the Democratic primary voting electorate in most Super Tuesday states).

The big prize next week for the Democrats is California -- where 441 delegates are at stake (370 are allocated proportionally to the presidential candidates).

A Smart Politics study of nearly three-dozen polls of likely voters in California conducted during the past 12 months found Edwards' departure should provide a boost for the Obama campaign.

Edwards and Obama were fighting over the anti-Clinton vote - their polling numbers in California are negatively correlated (-.506, significant at the .01 level). Neither Edwards nor Obama's numbers were correlated with Clinton's.

When a regression analysis was performed, the polling data reveals for every 1-point increase in support for Edwards, there was a 1.017-point drop in support for Obama in the state of California, holding for Clinton (significant at the .01 level).

This is a strong sign for Obama, who is no longer at risk to lose votes if the Edwards campaign were to have surged a bit during the next week. If the race between Obama and Clinton is going to be as close as some pundits expect, the presence of Edwards could have been the deciding factor against Obama.

Previous post: Live Blog: The Florida Primary
Next post: New MPR / HHH Poll Finds Clinton, McCain with Edge in Minnesota

1 Comment


  • I agree and wrote about this as soon as I heard Edwards was getting out of the race at http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2008/01/breaking_news_j_1.html

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting