Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Study: Edwards Exit Should Boost Obama in California

Bookmark and Share

Sources within the John Edwards campaign have revealed that the former Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee and North Carolina Senator will exit the race for the Democratic nomination today. The timing of the move was somewhat surprising, even though Edwards had not performed above expectations since his narrow second place finish in Iowa on January 3rd.

The question now is what will happen to Edwards' support? (Support that ranges from approximately one-tenth to one-fifth of the Democratic primary voting electorate in most Super Tuesday states).

The big prize next week for the Democrats is California -- where 441 delegates are at stake (370 are allocated proportionally to the presidential candidates).

A Smart Politics study of nearly three-dozen polls of likely voters in California conducted during the past 12 months found Edwards' departure should provide a boost for the Obama campaign.

Edwards and Obama were fighting over the anti-Clinton vote - their polling numbers in California are negatively correlated (-.506, significant at the .01 level). Neither Edwards nor Obama's numbers were correlated with Clinton's.

When a regression analysis was performed, the polling data reveals for every 1-point increase in support for Edwards, there was a 1.017-point drop in support for Obama in the state of California, holding for Clinton (significant at the .01 level).

This is a strong sign for Obama, who is no longer at risk to lose votes if the Edwards campaign were to have surged a bit during the next week. If the race between Obama and Clinton is going to be as close as some pundits expect, the presence of Edwards could have been the deciding factor against Obama.

Previous post: Live Blog: The Florida Primary
Next post: New MPR / HHH Poll Finds Clinton, McCain with Edge in Minnesota

1 Comment


  • I agree and wrote about this as soon as I heard Edwards was getting out of the race at http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2008/01/breaking_news_j_1.html

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

    At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

    Political Crumbs

    The Second Time Around

    Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


    How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

    Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting