Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Study: Edwards Exit Should Boost Obama in California

Bookmark and Share

Sources within the John Edwards campaign have revealed that the former Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee and North Carolina Senator will exit the race for the Democratic nomination today. The timing of the move was somewhat surprising, even though Edwards had not performed above expectations since his narrow second place finish in Iowa on January 3rd.

The question now is what will happen to Edwards' support? (Support that ranges from approximately one-tenth to one-fifth of the Democratic primary voting electorate in most Super Tuesday states).

The big prize next week for the Democrats is California -- where 441 delegates are at stake (370 are allocated proportionally to the presidential candidates).

A Smart Politics study of nearly three-dozen polls of likely voters in California conducted during the past 12 months found Edwards' departure should provide a boost for the Obama campaign.

Edwards and Obama were fighting over the anti-Clinton vote - their polling numbers in California are negatively correlated (-.506, significant at the .01 level). Neither Edwards nor Obama's numbers were correlated with Clinton's.

When a regression analysis was performed, the polling data reveals for every 1-point increase in support for Edwards, there was a 1.017-point drop in support for Obama in the state of California, holding for Clinton (significant at the .01 level).

This is a strong sign for Obama, who is no longer at risk to lose votes if the Edwards campaign were to have surged a bit during the next week. If the race between Obama and Clinton is going to be as close as some pundits expect, the presence of Edwards could have been the deciding factor against Obama.

Previous post: Live Blog: The Florida Primary
Next post: New MPR / HHH Poll Finds Clinton, McCain with Edge in Minnesota

1 Comment


  • I agree and wrote about this as soon as I heard Edwards was getting out of the race at http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2008/01/breaking_news_j_1.html

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting