Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Study: Giuliani Descent Linked Equally to Huckabee, Romney, and McCain

Bookmark and Share

Political pundits have largely explained Rudy Giuliani's decline over the past few months as a direct result of two factors: a) his failed campaign strategy that abandoned the early primary states and b) John McCain's surge—the latter being a logical supposition considering both candidates are considered to vie for the same votes: moderate Republicans and independents.

However, a Smart Politics study of nearly 200 national polls finds that while McCain's surge has helped to dethrone Giuliani of his frontrunner status, support for Giuliani has been equally impacted by Mike Huckabee, and nearly as impacted by Mitt Romney.

A regression analysis was performed of 197 national GOP primary polls conducted between October 2006 and January 2008 with national percentage point support for Rudy Giuliani as the dependent variable. Here are the findings:

  • A 1-point increase in support for McCain caused a .392 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Mike Hucakbee, and Ron Paul. Results were significant at the .001 level.
  • However, a 1-point increase in support for Mike Huckabee caused a nearly identical .380 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Thompson, Romney, McCain, and Paul. Results were significant at the .001 level.
  • Additionally, a 1-point increase in support for Mitt Romney caused a notable .313 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Thompson, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul. Results were significant at the .05 level.

Variable support for Thompson and Paul did not have a statistically significant impact on Giuliani's performance in the polls.

In short, Giuliani's decline cannot be solely attributed to the McCain surge, but, rather, a combination of McCain, Huckabee, and Romney all taking away support from the former New York City mayor in nearly equal amounts (each also winning primary or caucus contests along the way).

There may have been room at the top for both McCain and Giuliani, but not with Huckabee and Romney performing equally well.

Previous post: McCain Only GOP-er to Defeat Dems in Minnesota
Next post: Smart Politics to Live Blog SC Dem Primary Returns

3 Comments


  • Relation does not prove causation. Isn't it more likely that people realized Giuliani is a creep, and subsequently his competitors' poll numbers rose as his support eroded?

    Giuliani's precipitous drop correlates pretty well to revelations that he was using shady accounting to cover his taxpayer-funded trysts with his mistress, as well as providing her with police escorts even before their relationship was public.

    I'd have written your headline, "Giuliani Descent Linked to Giuliani"

  • OK - but even if there was a measure for 'creepiness' the question I'm asking is, "Where is Giuliani's support going?" The traditional view is almost all of it went to McCain, but the regression analysis I conducted demonstrates it goes to McCain and Hucakbee equally and nearly as much for Romney.

    The very nature of the primary horserace is that someone is taking support away from someone else. Admittedly there are other variables one could introduce into the regression model, such as economic indicators (which are seen to have helped Romney in recent weeks). But, the short of it is that former Giuliani supporters were not monolithic (independent Republicans, moderates etc.). If that were the case we would not have found the strong statistically signficant impact of Huckabee and Romney on Giuliani's support as well.

  • I agree with your comment.

    My only quibble was that the original article made it seem as though McCain, Huckabee, etc. were doing something dynamic to pull support away from Giuliani. Rather, I think you agree, Giuliani self-destructed and the competitors 'inherited' his support.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

    Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

    Political Crumbs

    Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

    Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


    Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

    Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting