Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Study: Giuliani Descent Linked Equally to Huckabee, Romney, and McCain

Bookmark and Share

Political pundits have largely explained Rudy Giuliani's decline over the past few months as a direct result of two factors: a) his failed campaign strategy that abandoned the early primary states and b) John McCain's surge—the latter being a logical supposition considering both candidates are considered to vie for the same votes: moderate Republicans and independents.

However, a Smart Politics study of nearly 200 national polls finds that while McCain's surge has helped to dethrone Giuliani of his frontrunner status, support for Giuliani has been equally impacted by Mike Huckabee, and nearly as impacted by Mitt Romney.

A regression analysis was performed of 197 national GOP primary polls conducted between October 2006 and January 2008 with national percentage point support for Rudy Giuliani as the dependent variable. Here are the findings:

  • A 1-point increase in support for McCain caused a .392 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Mike Hucakbee, and Ron Paul. Results were significant at the .001 level.
  • However, a 1-point increase in support for Mike Huckabee caused a nearly identical .380 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Thompson, Romney, McCain, and Paul. Results were significant at the .001 level.
  • Additionally, a 1-point increase in support for Mitt Romney caused a notable .313 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Thompson, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul. Results were significant at the .05 level.

Variable support for Thompson and Paul did not have a statistically significant impact on Giuliani's performance in the polls.

In short, Giuliani's decline cannot be solely attributed to the McCain surge, but, rather, a combination of McCain, Huckabee, and Romney all taking away support from the former New York City mayor in nearly equal amounts (each also winning primary or caucus contests along the way).

There may have been room at the top for both McCain and Giuliani, but not with Huckabee and Romney performing equally well.

Previous post: McCain Only GOP-er to Defeat Dems in Minnesota
Next post: Smart Politics to Live Blog SC Dem Primary Returns

3 Comments


  • Relation does not prove causation. Isn't it more likely that people realized Giuliani is a creep, and subsequently his competitors' poll numbers rose as his support eroded?

    Giuliani's precipitous drop correlates pretty well to revelations that he was using shady accounting to cover his taxpayer-funded trysts with his mistress, as well as providing her with police escorts even before their relationship was public.

    I'd have written your headline, "Giuliani Descent Linked to Giuliani"

  • OK - but even if there was a measure for 'creepiness' the question I'm asking is, "Where is Giuliani's support going?" The traditional view is almost all of it went to McCain, but the regression analysis I conducted demonstrates it goes to McCain and Hucakbee equally and nearly as much for Romney.

    The very nature of the primary horserace is that someone is taking support away from someone else. Admittedly there are other variables one could introduce into the regression model, such as economic indicators (which are seen to have helped Romney in recent weeks). But, the short of it is that former Giuliani supporters were not monolithic (independent Republicans, moderates etc.). If that were the case we would not have found the strong statistically signficant impact of Huckabee and Romney on Giuliani's support as well.

  • I agree with your comment.

    My only quibble was that the original article made it seem as though McCain, Huckabee, etc. were doing something dynamic to pull support away from Giuliani. Rather, I think you agree, Giuliani self-destructed and the competitors 'inherited' his support.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting