Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Study: Giuliani Descent Linked Equally to Huckabee, Romney, and McCain

Bookmark and Share

Political pundits have largely explained Rudy Giuliani's decline over the past few months as a direct result of two factors: a) his failed campaign strategy that abandoned the early primary states and b) John McCain's surge—the latter being a logical supposition considering both candidates are considered to vie for the same votes: moderate Republicans and independents.

However, a Smart Politics study of nearly 200 national polls finds that while McCain's surge has helped to dethrone Giuliani of his frontrunner status, support for Giuliani has been equally impacted by Mike Huckabee, and nearly as impacted by Mitt Romney.

A regression analysis was performed of 197 national GOP primary polls conducted between October 2006 and January 2008 with national percentage point support for Rudy Giuliani as the dependent variable. Here are the findings:

  • A 1-point increase in support for McCain caused a .392 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Mike Hucakbee, and Ron Paul. Results were significant at the .001 level.
  • However, a 1-point increase in support for Mike Huckabee caused a nearly identical .380 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Thompson, Romney, McCain, and Paul. Results were significant at the .001 level.
  • Additionally, a 1-point increase in support for Mitt Romney caused a notable .313 point drop in support for Giuliani, holding for support for Thompson, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul. Results were significant at the .05 level.

Variable support for Thompson and Paul did not have a statistically significant impact on Giuliani's performance in the polls.

In short, Giuliani's decline cannot be solely attributed to the McCain surge, but, rather, a combination of McCain, Huckabee, and Romney all taking away support from the former New York City mayor in nearly equal amounts (each also winning primary or caucus contests along the way).

There may have been room at the top for both McCain and Giuliani, but not with Huckabee and Romney performing equally well.

Previous post: McCain Only GOP-er to Defeat Dems in Minnesota
Next post: Smart Politics to Live Blog SC Dem Primary Returns

3 Comments


  • Relation does not prove causation. Isn't it more likely that people realized Giuliani is a creep, and subsequently his competitors' poll numbers rose as his support eroded?

    Giuliani's precipitous drop correlates pretty well to revelations that he was using shady accounting to cover his taxpayer-funded trysts with his mistress, as well as providing her with police escorts even before their relationship was public.

    I'd have written your headline, "Giuliani Descent Linked to Giuliani"

  • OK - but even if there was a measure for 'creepiness' the question I'm asking is, "Where is Giuliani's support going?" The traditional view is almost all of it went to McCain, but the regression analysis I conducted demonstrates it goes to McCain and Hucakbee equally and nearly as much for Romney.

    The very nature of the primary horserace is that someone is taking support away from someone else. Admittedly there are other variables one could introduce into the regression model, such as economic indicators (which are seen to have helped Romney in recent weeks). But, the short of it is that former Giuliani supporters were not monolithic (independent Republicans, moderates etc.). If that were the case we would not have found the strong statistically signficant impact of Huckabee and Romney on Giuliani's support as well.

  • I agree with your comment.

    My only quibble was that the original article made it seem as though McCain, Huckabee, etc. were doing something dynamic to pull support away from Giuliani. Rather, I think you agree, Giuliani self-destructed and the competitors 'inherited' his support.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

    Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

    Political Crumbs

    Six for Thirteen

    Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting