Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


ARG Poll: Clinton Leads Obama in Wisconsin

Bookmark and Share

As contests unfold in small and medium-sized states during the next month, there do not seem to be many opportunities for Hillary Clinton to halt the momentum enjoyed by Barack Obama in recent weeks. Of course, polls are not infallible, as we learn each election season, but both polls and demographics indicate that Obama is on track to put some distance between himself and Clinton as primary and especially caucus states fall into his column throughout the next few weeks.

For example, a new SurveyUSA poll has Obama up by 19 points (52 to 33 percent) among likely voters in Maryland (primary date = February 12th).

New polls by SurveyUSA and InsiderAdvantage in Virginia (primary date = February 12th) measure Obama's lead by 20 (59 to 39 percent) and 15 (52 to 37 percent) points respectively.

In Wisconsin, however, a new survey of likely voters by American Research Group (ARG) conducted February 6-7 gives Clinton a 50 to 41 percent lead over the Illinois Senator. Wisconsin holds its primary on February 19th, and, along with the Hawaii caucuses on that day, is the last contest for the Democrats before several hundred delegates are awarded on March 4th (with primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont).

Is Wisconsin Clinton's new firewall? Well, perhaps that is exaggerating its importance a bit much, but if Obama does as well as expected this month in Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Louisiana, and in the caucuses in Kansas, Hawaii, and Washington, a loss in Wisconsin by Clinton would mean the New York Senator would have to endure more than 3 weeks of negative media coverage leading up to the mini-Super Tuesday of March 4th. Clinton needs to be able to hang her hat on some key state—and Wisconsin has been one of the classic battleground states during the past 20 years. Her campaign will be targeting it to be sure.

But should we ultimately expect Clinton to carry Wisconsin? Clinton suffers among independents in the Badger state, and does not perform as well as Obama in matchups against Republicans among voters overall. In a poll conducted by SurveyUSA two and a half weeks ago, Obama led Huckabee by 10 points while Clinton led him by just 4 points. McCain led both Democrats in close matchups, beating Obama by 2 points and Clinton by 4 points.

Previous post: Super Tuesday Media Coverage: It's All About California, Part 1 (The Democrats)
Next post: No Surpise in Kansas GOP Caucuses: Huckabee Rolls

6 Comments


  • Don't give the ARG poll too much credit. Nearly all of their polls this year have underestimated Obama's percentage by a considerable margin and have only predicted the winner about half the time (that was when Obama won). The polls for Connecticut and Delaware before Super Tuesday also showed Billary with a large lead and she lost both.

  • I agree, and my February 11th entry suggests the numbers will change in Wisconsin as well. The ARG model does not seem to capture the late-breaking support for Obama; support which, to some degree, comes from his heavy media buys.

  • But This time ARG will be right.

  • Hillary will come out alright in Wisconsin. Theirs a long stretch between talk and doing.

  • I just read an analysis of all polls as of the day before the election in Wisconsin. ARG is the only one that shows Clinton in the lead. However, a comment on ARG's effectiveness as a polling group belies above comments, stating that ARG has done better than most in predicting the outcomes of Obama/Clinton face-offs since New Hampshire.

    Clinton appears to have a very good opportunity in Wisconsin to at least claim significant delegates if not to win outright.

  • Obama's efforts to connect to the Republican Party, specifically Bush, and Dick Chaney, of the Halliburton Company, dates back to the Presidents Grandfather, Prescott Bush, and indeed Chaney was once an executive officer of Halliburton.

    The American military pounds Iraq with Artillary, bombs, and the like, destroying large sections of cities, and infra-structures, then Halliburton comes in to rebuild. Halliburton and Halliburton associated companies have raked in ten's of billions.

    Obama is just like the BIG HALIBURTAN. Haliburton has contracted to build detention centers in the U.S. similiar to the one in Quantanammo Bay, Cuba. Halliburton does nothing to earn the Two Dollars for each meal an American Serviceman in Iraq eats.

    http://www.associatedcontent.c.....ong…

    Halliburton was scheduled to take control of the Dubai Ports in The United Arab Emiirate. The deal was canceled when Bush was unable to affect the transfer of the American Ports.

    Now we see what some might suspect as similiar financial escapading from the Democrats.

    Two years ago, Iraq's Ministry of Electricity gave a $50 million contract to a start-up security company - Companion- owned by now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO) Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley, to train Iraqi power-plant guards in the United States. An Iraqi leadership change left the deal in limbo. Now the company, Companion Security, is working to revive its contract.
    Involved along with Antoin "Tony" Rezco, long time friend and neighbor of Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and former cop Daniel T. Frawley, is Aiham Alsammarae. Alsammarae was accused of financial corruption by Iraqi authorities and jailed in Iraq last year before escaping and returning here.

    Obama should be vetted and disclose his connection to the criminal money generating underworld. Besides, his connections to the REZCO MAFIA types, his up-coming tax fraud charges — Obama needs to disclose why he is a Muslim and stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It's time to shove an introduction to this fake rip-off Obama and invite the thief pipsqueke to meet the Waukesheake Police Department

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

    Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

    Political Crumbs

    Haugh to Reach New Heights

    The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting